Champions League Final tips: why Paris match could be cagey affair

The 2021/22 campaign concludes with the biggest game of all on Saturday night, as Liverpool and Real Madrid do battle for the Champions League trophy in Paris.

Recent Champions League finals have been tight encounters

Liverpool and Real Madrid have already won silverware this season, but a failure to triumph in the Champions League final would leave both feeling somewhat disappointed with how the campaign has played out.

Liverpool would have failed to achieve either of their two main targets, having finished a point behind Manchester City in the Premier League. And although Madrid were crowned La Liga champions, the club has long defined itself by its exploits in Europe.

With so much at stake, we should not necessarily expect a goal-laden affair. Madrid beat Liverpool 3-1 in the 2018 Champions League showpiece, but each of the three finals since then has featured two goals or fewer.

We could be in store for something similar at the Stade de France, so under 2.5 goals looks like pretty good value at 2.1.

First half could be close with Madrid happy to hold out

Liverpool will look to make a fast start against Madrid, just as Manchester City did in the first leg of the semi-final. It might be harder for the Reds to match City’s intensity on that occasion, though.

For starters, they will be playing at a neutral ground, not Anfield. And this will be Liverpool’s 63rd game of a jam-packed season. There have been signs in some of their recent performances that fatigue is (understandably) setting in.

Madrid will be content to keep things tight early on, before growing into the match the longer it wears on. Indeed, Carlo Ancelotti would probably settle for a goalless first half, which is available at an enticing price of 3.35.

Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti will be quite happy with a goalless first half in Paris

Benzema can cap excellent season with 45th goal

Whatever happens on Saturday, Karim Benzema has had a magnificent season. Having previously operated in Cristiano Ronaldo’s shadow, the France international has excelled since becoming Madrid’s main man. His 45 appearances in all competitions this term have yielded 44 goals. His record in the Champions League is particularly impressive: 11 games, 15 goals.

If Liverpool can keep Benzema quiet, they will have a great chance of winning this final. That is easier said than done, however. Benzema is lethal in and around the penalty area. He does not need many sights of goal to find the back of the net. He can also score every type of goal, as he has demonstrated in knockout games against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City.

Virgil van Dijk will be back in Liverpool’s starting XI, but Benzema will nevertheless back himself to grab his 45th goal of the campaign. The 34-year-old is priced at 2.18 to score anytime.

Recommended bets

Under 2.5 @ 2.1

First half under 0.5 @ 3.35

Benzema anytime @ 2.18