Champions League Final: how Ancelotti's Madrid can foil Liverpool

Robin Bairner assesses where the value lies in the win markets for Saturday's game between Liverpool and Real Madrid in Paris.

Foes reunited

For the second time in four years, Liverpool and Real Madrid will meet in a Champions League final. 

In 2018, it was Los Blancos who came out on top. Karim Benzema opened the scoring early in the second half with an opportunist goal before Sadio Mane rapidly equalised. However, a double from Gareth Bale sealed the trophy, which is the latest of a record 13 Madrid have won. 

Liverpool are European Cup-winning veterans, too, and are favourites to lift their seventh title at 1.61. Carlo Ancelotti’s side, meanwhile, are 2.6 underdogs to add yet another Champions League to their glittering roll of honour.

Treble vision

Liverpool travel to Stade de France chasing a treble of trophies. Jurgen Klopp’s men dramatically missed out on the Premier League title last Sunday in a final day shootout, but they have been knockout cup specialists this season, winning the EFL Cup and the FA Cup thanks to victories in penalty shootouts. 

The Anfield club, meanwhile, have been formidably consistent this season. They have suffered only three defeats in all competitions, the most recent of which came way back on December 28, when they lost 1-0 at Leicester. 

Klopp’s men have benefitted from a remarkably serene run to the Champions League final, not having to face a current superpower in the knockout rounds.

They were given a scare against Spanish opposition in the second leg semi-finals but were ultimately comfortable 5-2 winners on aggregate against Villarreal.

Will Liverpool avenge their 2018 Champions League final defeat at the hands of Real Madrid? 

Real survivors

Real Madrid’s passage to this point has been far more dramatic and much more testing. PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City have all been overcome by Los Blancos – three sides that all harbour legitimate hopes of winning this competition.

Ancelotti’s side might have fallen in each round, but have found immense mental resources to recover from three seemingly hopeless positions.

This strength of mind will need to be evident again if they are to overcome Liverpool, with the club cruising in recent weeks, having long won the Spanish title. This has been reflected in a return of just one win in four matches. 

Madrid, though, are known as Champions League specialists and will be going all out to show that as they chase a 14th successive crown. 

Value on Madrid

Champions League finals have typically been tight affairs in the recent past. Each of the last three finals has seen only one team find the net. This trend is likely to be bucked in this match, with Real Madrid having had a taste for the dramatic this season. Five of their six knockout games have seen both teams score. 

Meanwhile, Real Madrid are undefeated in their last five against Liverpool and have a knack of playing to their peak on occasions such as this.

For that reason, 90-minute odds of the Reds winning at 2.12 look a little disrespectful to the Spaniards, who should be backed on either the handicap or double chance market to profit. 

Recommended bets 

Both teams to score @ 1.68

Draw or Real Madrid @ 1.82