Tips for in-play golf trading

In part one of our golf trading strategy segment, we talked about a pre-tournament guide to look for an edge in the golf betting markets. The game of golf itself and thus the golf markets have evolved a lot over the last several years and now many golf bettors prefer to bet and trade in running. What does this achieve?

It narrows down the field while still providing access to some great value. We can look at most sportsbooks still offering 1/5th top 5 in the each-way book after round one to see this. 70% of the field are eliminated at this stage, so there’s an area to exploit in the dynamics of the golf betting markets here. What's more, some prices on the Smarkets exchange on guys near the front after 18 holes can be big relative to their fair odds, which gives us a chance to get involved. Narrowing down the field is vital in golf trading and after 18,36 and even 54 holes there can still be plenty of value available.

An option for us is to Dutch some front runners in the market after 18 holes which can give us decent outright odds on our total outlay. We can also choose to lay off our position deeper into the tournament. We might look to place top 5 insurance on the players on Smarkets. 

The draw can be a variable to look at for an edge early in a golf tournament. Generally, the guys out in the morning on day two will get the best of it in terms of less wind and softer conditions but this won’t be factored into their prices before day 2 play.

Weekend Golf Trading

 When it comes to the weekend or the major golf events, we will start to see more liquidity in the markets especially when the event is live. We must be aware of Courtsiders being ahead of the market as big weekend traders look to trade small positions. Golf Traders now have access to IMG Arena and other shot tracking software and tools, but we must beware of glitches in this software and on “live” leaderboards. The live pictures are often a little bit behind the exchanges which update in real time. There can be some flaws with shot tracking and scoring.

Golf Trading Angles to Exploit

Knowing the stroke indexes of the holes is a great angle to explore and exploit for the golf day traders and big stakers. If a player has a couple of par fives or easier holes coming up, he can do some damage and we might be able to back him before this run of holes with the intention of laying after this stretch. We need strong liquidity in the golf betting markets for this strategy.

Golf betting markets will often overreact. Another example of this is when a ball is hit to 20 feet. There is less than a 20% chance on average of the putt being holed by the top pros, but we often see dramatic price drops. Time to get the Lay boots on here!

It’s also important to know that the scoring average of the final group on Saturday and Sunday is significantly higher than the other contenders. I’ve done plenty of research in this area. The leaders over the weekend tend to play a more defensive style of golf. This often leads to the frontrunners being underpriced, leaving value on the table for the players a few shots back. This can open up some great angles for betting and trading golf markets on the final day of the event.