How to research your tennis bets

Tipster Andy Schooler has been writing tennis betting previews for more than 20 years.

We asked him to explain how he goes about trying to find winners. Here, he breaks down the key areas which he looks at in the search for profit.

Current form

Obvious, I know, but it’s essential you know how well a player is performing before backing him or her. This is where keeping tabs on the tour is essential. Ideally, that’s done by watching plenty of matches, although if you have a full-time job, you’re going to find it hard to do. Don’t worry though. It can also be done statistically – live-score apps and websites are commonplace these days and provide you with much more than just the scorelines. You can get stats such as first-serve points won, break points saved/converted. While not the same as watching the action involved, this information will paint a picture of how a match played out.

Tournament history

To use racing parlance, we’re talking ‘course form’ – how well has a player done at this tournament in the past? If there are ‘horses for courses’, there are also ‘contenders for courts’. The reasons for a player doing well at a particular venue can be many but they include the court surface, the weather and simply having good memories of a particular win, such as their first over a top-10 player. The ATP and WTA websites are good sources for historical results, while subscription services like OnCourt package previous tournament results into a more user-friendly experience and prevent you having to trawl through many pages.

Motivation

Assessing motivation levels ahead of a tournament is key – don’t think that every player will be giving their absolute all at every event they play. It’s simply not the case. Some events mean more than others – be it the prestige, money or ranking points on offer.  A player competing in front of home fans may also give that little bit extra, while someone playing at a 250-level tournament the week before a 1000-level one may just be holding a little back. It’s not rocket-science. Also, look out for potential dangling carrots, like the chase for a Grand Slam seeding or a place in the season-ending ATP Finals.

Conditions

A massive factor to consider is the tournament conditions – think altitude, court surface, balls and weather. Altitude is a big one – I’ve found a lot of high-altitude specialists over the years (Albert Ramos-Vinolas is one such example). Others struggle. Playing well above sea level requires greater ball control as the balls tend to ‘fly’ more through the thinner air. In short, take note of an event’s altitude. Surface needs little explanation; some players prefer clay, others the hardcourts or grass. But don’t forget there are sub-categories within the court surface options – for example, hardcourts are laid by a variety of companies (Greenset, Laykold etc) and can be fast or slow with the International Tennis Federation giving them a rating between 1 (slow) and 5 (fast). Sadly, this information can be hard to find out. As for balls, also manufactured by a variety of firms, some can produce quicker shots than others – there are always some grumblings about a certain type at some point in the season. And then there’s the weather. Hot temperatures tend to speed up play but high humidity can slow things down. It’s a generalisation but the big servers tend to prefer the quicker conditions as it aids their big shot, whereas slow conditions help blunt it.

Draw

Few tennis tournaments are priced up prior to the draw and there’s a reason for that – it can make a big difference. Sometimes you’ll immediately look at a draw and think ‘the bottom half is much weaker’. Don’t fall for the ‘you have to beat everyone’ line as it’s simply not true. In a 32-draw event, you need to beat five players, not 31, to win it. A ‘soft’ draw can help a lot – saving energy in the early rounds can help when it comes to the business end of the tournament, although some will say that such situations can leave a player ‘undercooked’. Regardless of your view on that, the draw needs studying prior to placing your bets. Plotting a potential path to the final can lead to you finding value in the odds. Take a look at who has a good head-to-head record against his/her potential opponents. Again, this info is widely available – for free if you are prepared to put in the time or at a price via subscription sites, who will do much of the work for you.