Week 14 NFL Tips - Packers to tame the Bears

Week 14 means we’re in the home stretch of the NFL season with play-off places up for grabs and the first of those can be secured this weekend.

But with so many teams still in contention you can’t take anything for granted in this league.

Chicago Bears (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3) - 1:20 AM

Match odds: Bears 6.2 | Packers 1.17

It’s the 204^th meeting of the NFL’s oldest rivalry but it’s been one-way traffic lately with Green Bay winning 10 of the last 11 and the Bears grabbing just three victories in the last decade.

The Packers are coming off a bye and are 5-0 at home with a +67 points difference, while Chicago have lost six of their last seven and have three away defeats of 13 points or more. The initial spread was 12.5 points and the Packers are 2.02 to cover.

Rookie QB Justin Fields will return for Chicago but that could actually make things worse given the atmosphere at Lambeau Field Green Bay’s vastly-improved defence this season. That makes the Packers worth backing at 2.0 to be four points ahead in the first quarter.

Green Bay are heavy favourites in the renewal of the oldest NFL rivalry.

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) @ Washington Football Team (6-6) - 6pm

Match odds: Cowboys 1.52 | Washington 2.86

Three defeats in five for Dallas and four straight wins for Washington means this first of two meetings in three weeks is now crucial in the NFC East. Washington became just the second team ever to start 2-6 but make the play-offs last season, and with five divisional games to finish they’re in with a chance of doing it again!

Dallas have had the extra rest and with Amari Cooper getting healthier their attack will only improve, while Washington have underrated playmakers in Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, but both teams’ recent success has come via defence.

Taking under 49.5 points at 1.74 is smart, as Washington’s last six game have gone under in total points as have five of Dallas’ last six, and while Dallas should edge it, the game will be close and tough with kickers proving crucial. Over 3.5 field goals at 2.28 therefore looks interesting with that bet landing in two of Dallas’ last three game and two of four for Washington.

Seattle Seahawks (4-8) @ Houston Texans (2-10) - 6pm

Match odds: Seahawks 1.3 | Texans 4.0

There can’t have been many 4-8 teams being such big favourites, given 75% to win, in a road game in the NFL, but when they’re facing the Texans then it’s easier to explain Seattle being put up at 1.3.

Seattle’s win over the 49ers still doesn’t inject full confidence in them as seven-point favourites, but Houston’s 31-0 loss last week does give huge confidence in a road win. The Seahawks defence stifled San Francisco last week and now face rookie QB Davis Mills.

Seattle haven’t allowed more than 23 points in seven straight games, so go low on Houston’s points, but the total points is the market you want. The Seahawks have gone under in their last six road games while Houston’s last four haven’t topped the total. Back under 40.5 points here at 2.04.

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-7)

Match odds: Falcons 2.28 | Panthers 1.76

The Panthers start as narrow favourites but it’s a coin toss between two middling sides in middling form yet still somehow in the play-off picture. Cam Newton returned to Carolina in a blaze of glory, but the fire soon went out and his struggles after a bright start encapsulate the Panthers’ problems.

Both teams average below 20 points so the 41.5-point line here looks a little optimistic, especially given there were only 22 points in the first game. They’ve both lost three of five when their aggregate points totaled 20 and 37 - under looks the bet at 2.0.

With nothing between them it often pays to back the underdog, and the Falcons at 2.28 definitely represent value as they've played their best football on the road when going 4-2, while the Panthers are only 2-4 in Charlotte.