NFL Tips: Back Josh Allen's Bills to edge Rams in LA on Thursday

The 2022/23 NFL season begins with a hotly anticipated clash between reigning champions Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills, who are current antepost favourites for Super Bowl LVII. 

Fans at a sold-out SoFi Stadium on Thursday will undoubtedly enjoy quality on both sides of the ball, as many pundits believe that these two teams will face off once again in February.

A difference in fortune

The Bills showcased their league-winning credentials last year as they conceded fewer points than any other side (18.3 per game) while also recording the third-highest total (29.8 per game). 

A good defence generally wins a championship, but Patrick Mahomes had other ideas in the Divisional round and brought his Kansas City Chiefs back from the brink to knock Buffalo out in a game for the ages. Allen and his teammates will be using that heartbreak as motivation to finally bring the Vince Lombardi trophy to their city.

The Rams, however, don’t have to wonder what could have been as they won their second Super Bowl in front of a packed home stadium. Quarterback Matthew Stafford proved to be the final piece of the puzzle for Sean McVay’s side and led his team to glory over the Cincinnati Bengals in a tight 23-20 encounter.

Stafford’s arrival last summer resulted in Los Angeles completing 273 pass yards per game in 2021, up from just over 240 in 2020. The main beneficiary of this was, of course, star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who finished the year with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns.

Elite defences face tough challenge

Both teams have significant strength on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey head up a deep Rams D, while Von Miller left the reigning champions in the off-season and ironically chose to sign with their Thursday night opponents.

The Bills had the best pass defence in the league last season and gave up a paltry 163 passing yards per game on average - 24 yards fewer than any other side. Buffalo safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, who recorded five interceptions each in 2021, will be hoping to force turnovers and keep Stafford’s completion stats down - especially with star cornerback Tre'Davious White still out injured.

Josh Allen led his side to some big wins on the road last season

Despite this, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout with both sides capable of putting up big numbers. The Bills averaged an incredible 30.8 points per game on the road last season, which included six scores north of 30 in just eight games outside Buffalo. This included trips to New England, New Orleans and Tennessee, who ranked third, fourth and sixth respectively in fewest points allowed last year.

Meanwhile, the Rams averaged 27 points themselves last term, the eighth-highest return in the league. Just to further enhance the domination of their offences, LA and Buffalo totalled an average of 754 total yards per game. That being the case, over 52.5 points at 1.9 looks like good value.

Boisterous Bills to scrape a shootout

This game might come down to which quarterback blinks first. Allen is the superior player, especially considering Matt Stafford’s supposed elbow issues, but both sets of wide receivers will help bail their respective signal caller out if necessary.

Considering both teams’ strength through the air, it’s possible that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who scored four touchdowns in his last competitive game, will post admirable numbers for Buffalo, while Kupp and Allen Robinson are going to be hard to keep covered for Los Angeles. Of those four receivers, Robinson offers the best value (2.3) in the ‘anytime touchdown scorer’ market. 

I’m also backing Buffalo to get off to the perfect start. These two sides are relatively evenly matched but, with perfect conditions expected, a Bills victory is most likely in the probable event of a high-scoring game.

Recommended trades

Buffalo over 26.5 points @ 1.82
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