Go Big and Go Chiefs

Week 15 starts with a bang as two of the most talented quarterbacks in the league do battle on Thursday Night Football with Patrick Mahomes and his red-hot Chiefs visiting Justin Herbert’s Chargers.

The Chiefs have won six in a row to sit joint-top of the AFC on 9-4, but LA have won three out of four to go 8-5 and will go top of the AFC West above KC with victory at SoFi Stadium – home of this season’s Super Bowl.

This one should be fun.

Red-hot Chiefs on a roll

Kansas City struggled earlier this season but those six wins have them vying for top seed in the AFC and current favourites to make it to a third straight Super Bowl.

They’ll get to sample the host stadium on Thursday night, and although Mahomes is the star, the incredible turnaround in their defence has been the catalyst.

They’ve allowed just 10.8 points per game over this win streak and kept their last three opponents to just nine points. Throw in 23 takeaways and from nowhere you have a top defence.

Aside from two beatings of the Raiders, Mahomes has been quiet with just two TD passes in the other five games – but taking a back seat to the defence has helped in tight low-scoring games.

He may have to throw a few on Thursday though.

Patrick Mahomes will be trying to avenge the Chiefs' loss to the Chargers earlier this season.

Herbert setting records for Chargers

Mahomes is 19-3 against the AFC West but the Chargers have won the last two, including earlier this season when Herbert outplayed Mahomes.

He set the rookie TD record last season and is flying again with more yards (3822) and TDs (30) than Mahomes. Herbert is the first QB ever to throw 30 TD passes in his first two seasons.

It’s the Chargers defence that’s the worry, much like the Chiefs earlier in the season, with the Bolts allowing 25.8 points per game.

They’re second-last in rush defence too, conceding 140 yards per game, and the Chiefs won’t be scared of running it with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.

That inability to get a stop could cost them.

Go big and go Chiefs

With the Chiefs on such a roll they should win, and I’m happy enough taking the 2.0 on offer for them to cover a –3.5-point spread.

Everyone’s hoping we’ll get Herbert and Mahomes slinging it about, and if the Chargers get ahead early that’s exactly what we’ll get. They’re both top 10 offences averaging 27 points a game.

They’ve both been firing of late, averaging around 33 points each over their last four, and the Chargers have been involved in some wild games in this stadium.

The one worry is the Chiefs go up early and play keep away by running the ball all day and keeping the score down, but that’s the only game state that would stop them combining for over 51.5pts at around 1.91.

It’s hard to see the Chargers keeping the Chiefs under 27.5pts though, so back over there at 1.92 with confidence.

Recommended bets

Chiefs to win on –3.5pts handicap at 2.0

Chiefs to score over 27.5pts at 1.92