Commanders v Bears Tips: Who will win in the ultimate clash of styles?

Jack Goddard

13 October 2022

The Justin Fields-led Chicago Bears will host Carson Wentz's Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football in week six of the 2022 NFL season. Who will come out on top?

Despite boasting a losing record, the Bears have undoubtedly made a more promising start to the season. They are currently 2-3, but were close to turning that around after they almost snatched an unlikely victory from the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday.

The Commanders, meanwhile, have been in free-fall. Wentz threw his sixth interception of the season against the Tennessee Titans at the weekend to confirm their fourth consecutive loss on the year. Considering every other team in their division has at least four wins on the board already, Washington need to put a streak of victories together right now.

Justin just out of time

Despite their recent loss, Chicago will feel pretty good about themselves after their weekend matchup. 21-3 down in the second quarter, the Bears clawed back to lead 22-21 late in the fourth - only for Kirk Cousins to cobble together a game-winning touchdown drive immediately afterwards.

Fields completed 12 of 13 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown in the second half, after recording a statline of just three completions from eight attempts for 72 yards in the first two quarters. And those first-half numbers were massively inflated by a 30-yard screen pass to David Montgomery and a 39-yard wonder catch by Darnell Mooney.

This is indicative of Chicago’s season. They have been trailing at halftime in all five games so far - the Bears have conceded an average of 16 points in the first 30 minutes of their matches (the NFL average per game is 21.8 points).

Conversely, the Bears have won three and tied one of their five second halves, so they’ve proven they can compete once a game wears on. Considering this, you can back Washington Commanders half-time/Chicago Bears full-time at a very tasty price (9).

Clash of styles

The two quarterbacks in this game have gone for very different approaches this season. Carson Wentz has been looking to sling the ball at every opportunity, while Fields has barely attempted a pass all year - he’s made just 49 completions so far, the lowest of any quarterback to have played three or more games.

The numbers for the Bears signal-caller get worse from there. Among all quarterbacks with five or more starts, Fields has the second-worst passer rating (73.1) and the second-worst completion percentage (55.7%). Only Carolina’s Baker Mayfield has worse stats than the Chicago man in each of those categories. Fields has thrown for even fewer yards than Mayfield, though, and ranks dead last among starters with just 679 on the board.

Wentz, however, has thrown for 1,390 yards so far, the fifth-most in the league - which makes sense considering he’s made the second-most passing attempts (210). This really will be a true clash of offensive styles.

The Commanders’ swashbuckling approach can be attributed to a couple of factors: the fact that they’re often losing, and their truly woeful offensive line. Wentz has been sacked 20 times in five games, which places him third behind just Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford for quarterbacks who’ve spent most time on the floor.

Fields himself has been sacked 18 times - the joint-fourth most in the league. The Bears, as previously established, have also spent plenty of time trailing in every match, which makes the difference in styles between these two sides quite compelling.

Risky business

Ron Rivera’s job could be on the line here with the Washington Commanders’ 1-4 record already giving them little chance of making the postseason.

Washington are allowing 25.6 points per game so far this year, which ranks their defence - the strength of which made them NFC East champions just two years ago - the sixth-worst in the league.

They will be entirely dependent on Carson Wentz and his wide receivers - primarily Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel - after the Commanders ran 17 times for just 43 rushing yards last time out (Antonio Gibson’s production has regrettably fallen off a cliff). Look for free safety Eddie Jackson, who already has three interceptions for Chicago this year, to pick Wentz off.

The Bears, meanwhile, are reliant on their run game as their receivers have combined for just 79 receptions so far - the same number as Rams' Cooper Kupp alone. Running back Khalil Herbert could make an impact off the bench, but David Montgomery’s return to fitness should result in him being given the rock plenty. I’d back him to score anytime in a low-scoring affair.