Colts v Broncos Tips: Will Russell Wilson get back on track?

Thursday Night Football features two sides with plenty to prove, as Matt Ryan’s Indianapolis Colts travel to Empower Field at Mile High to face Russell Wilson’s misfiring Denver Broncos.

Denver were fancied by many to make the Super Bowl this year, but new quarterback Wilson hasn’t quite revolutionised the bumbling Broncos’ offense quite like we all thought he might as we head into NFL week five.

The Colts, meanwhile, are having yet another quarterback crisis. After ditching Carson Wentz in the off-season, next-man-up Ryan’s sole win from four attempts came in remarkable fashion against perennial NFL heavyweights, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Denver’s dazzling defence

Despite their 2-2 start, Wilson and his Denver teammates will feel that they are still capable of turning their season around - especially considering the players they have on the defensive side of the ball.

The Broncos allowed an average of just 12.3 points per game through their first three matches, before conceding more than 20 for the first time against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. Derek Carr’s side put up 32 points, although seven of those came as a direct result of Melvin Gordon’s second-quarter fumble. 

Following that game, the Broncos now rank fifth in the NFL in points allowed. Their defence is arguably the best in football, thanks in particular to the wonderful efforts of cornerback Pat Surtain, who is now arguably the best at his position in the league.

Considering Denver are allowing just 17 points per game, and only scoring an average of 16.5, under 42.5 points in this one at 2.04 looks like wonderful value, especially considering the situation at running back.

From bad to worse

Gordon’s fumble at the weekend meant that, for the first time in his Denver career, Javonte Williams took over as the true workhorse back to the delight of fantasy managers around the globe.

That joy was short-lived, however, as the running back tore his ACL, LCL and posterolateral corner later in the game. That injury hasn’t just ended his season, but potentially sidelines him for a decent chunk of next year too.

Denver will now move ahead with Gordon, Mike Boone, who had three carries for 20 yards against the Raiders, and Latavius Murray, who led New Orleans in rushing yards in London last week but was eligible to be signed from the Saints’ practice squad. Only time will tell how offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will share the backfield touches.

Crazy Colts

The Colts have had a bizarre season so far. They tied with the Texans, scored exactly zero points in a mauling by the Jaguars, beat the Chiefs (pardon?), then lost again to the Titans.

Frank Reich’s quarterback issues have continued this season (if you haven’t already, you can read more about them here), although former NFL MVP Matt Ryan has improved lately, posting figures of 27-37 for 227 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City, and 27-37 for 356 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against Tennessee.

Matt Ryan has only led the Colts to one win so far, but it was against the Chiefs

The task at hand for Ryan on Thursday will be his most difficult yet, however. Not only is this Broncos defence the best he has played so far, but he will also be without superstar running back Jonathan Taylor. 

Taylor suffered an ankle injury at the weekend and, although his scan was clean, he will not suit up on Thursday. Nonetheless, he has started the season slowly, with 81 rushing attempts translating to 328 yards (almost exactly four yards per carry) and just one touchdown. The Wisconsin back started his other two NFL seasons meekly, however, before absolutely taking off.

Colts v Broncos predictions

Success for Ryan and the Colts will depend on whether they can get the ball to Michael Pittman. Against the Texans and Chiefs, the third-year wideout made 17 combined receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown, while the Colts put up 20 points and lost neither game. 

Meanwhile, Pittman missed the Jags game through injury, and managed just three receptions in defeat to the Titans. He is an interesting proposition in the touchdown markets - you can get him at 2.76 to score anytime. 

However, I prefer the claims of Courtland Sutton. He has been targeted at least seven times in every game so far and he’s available at 2.52 to find the endzone. With the Broncos set to increase productivity through the air, Sutton can spearhead the Broncos to a narrow win. Denver -2.5 on the spread seems like another astute choice. 

Recommended trades

Under 42.5 points @ 2.04
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown scorer @ 2.52
Denver Broncos -2.5 @ 1.79