Thursday Night Football Tips: Back Mahomes and Herbert to score big

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers square off in week two of the NFL season in a divisional clash that could have huge implications for their play-off hopes.

Both teams made a good start to their AFC West title bids on Sunday - Los Angeles defeated divisional rivals Las Vegas Raiders, while Kansas City totally obliterated a decent Arizona Cardinals side to make their Super Bowl intentions this season perfectly clear.

The Chiefs and Chargers now have a crucial one-game head start in a division stuffed with talent, following the Broncos’ shock defeat to Seattle on Monday night. The victor at Arrowhead on Thursday will become the only unbeaten team in the division, giving them a huge boost over their three rivals.

No Hill, no problem

This match-up will be dictated by the quality of the two quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes, the former Super Bowl and NFL MVP, will go head-to-head with Justin Herbert, the third-year signal caller with the ability to overthrow Mahomes and Russell Wilson as the best in the AFC West.

The Chiefs quarterback lost star wideout Tyreek Hill over the summer, but that doesn’t seem to have fazed him one bit. He threw five touchdowns to four different receivers on Sunday, while completing passes to nine players in total during the course of the game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire benefited most from Mahomes’ generosity and found paydirt twice, while rookie running back Isiah Pacheco ran in the Chiefs’ sixth and final touchdown in his first competitive start at this level. Mecole Hardman, Jody Fortson and, of course, Travis Kelce all also found the endzone.

Patrick Mahomes: will hope the Chiefs can emulate their week one heroics

Justin Herbert is going to face a similar problem on Thursday night, with his number one receiver Keenan Allen possibly ruled out for several weeks. Herbert shared the love on Sunday himself, targeting no player more than four times while also connecting with nine different receivers. Expect tight-end Gerald Everett and running back Austin Ekeler to receive extra work on Thursday.

The Chargers quarterback will also need to look to receiver Mike Williams, who signed a $60million extension in the off-season but hauled in just two receptions against the Raiders.

The sheer volume of attacking talent in this match-up makes the first touchdown market extremely volatile, with so many possibilities on both sides of the ball. Ekeler and the ever-reliable Travis Kelce seem like the safest bets.

Herbert plus Mahomes equals touchdowns

The line for the total points market is set at a whopping 54.5. Going back to Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, four out of eight matchups between these sides have hit the overs. Meanwhile, both sides played out seven games each that featured 55 or more points last year.

With the aforementioned offensive talent in each locker room, you can understand why the line has been set so high. The downside to having a monster offence is that you force the other side to do everything they can to keep up, and this was evident last season.

When the Chiefs scored 30 points last year, their opposition posted at least 25 in return on five out of seven occasions. Similarly, when the Chargers recorded 30 points last term, six out of eight of their opponents registered at least 25. That means that when one of these teams went big, the other side also did 73% of the time.

If one of these explosive teams posts a big score on Thursday night, the other will likely replicate. I’d back over 53.5 here - you will have to accept a slightly shorter price, but the last three matchups between these two have all ended in 54 or more points, so it looks safer.

Chargers’ new linemen brigade

One word of caution to those expecting buckets of points: Los Angeles have invested heavily in their defence over the summer, with Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson added to aid a beleaguered interior defensive line. Their presence should limit the Chiefs’ run game somewhat, although Mahomes is used to having to air it out.

Of greater concern to the Kansas City quarterback will be new pass-rusher Khalil Mack. He and Joey Bosa could cause the Chiefs o-line enough trouble to swing the game in LA’s favour. But come on, this is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about. He’s going to score some points.

The Chargers have won in three of their last four trips to Arrowhead Stadium, however, and I fancy Herbert to get the win again, even without his favourite wide receiver. 

It won’t be easy, though, and two of the last four games between these sides have gone to overtime. Back Los Angeles +3.5 on the point spread just to rule out the possibility of a Chiefs walk-off field goal ruining your bet.

Recommended trades

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 @ 2.06
Over 53.5 points @ 1.81