Eurovision Semi-Final 2 Pre-Rehearsal Preview

Earlier this week I published my pre-rehearsal preview for semi-final 1 and the first two automatic qualifiers. Now it's the turn of semi-final 2 and the remaining three members of the Big Five.

Finland
Smarkets qualification chance: 84%

As The Rasmus kick this semi-final off with 'Jezebel', vocals will be a real concern. Lead singer Lauri has sounded strained and breathless in multiple live performances of the song, especially at the start and throughout the verses. That the opening lines of 'Jezebel' are going to be the first anyone hears in the entire semi-final makes them stand out even more.

With that said, the song has a lot of staging potential and rock tends to do much better at Eurovision than many expect. I still think Finland is a likely qualifier and they should receive some high scores from Estonia and Sweden, but given the potential that they get punished by the juries for weak vocals and that there are another 17 songs following them, an 84% qualification chance feels way too high for my liking.

Israel
Smarkets qualification chance: 23%

We received confirmation today that Israel would be performing live in Turin and that the 'live on tape' threats were, as expected, a negotiating tactic for the Israeli security detail. Curiously, though, Israel's chance of qualification has not changed with the betting markets.

The likelihood of Israel making the final is being underestimated in my view. Michael Ben David's strong vocals and charisma should contrast very well with the preceding Finland and assure him a pretty good jury score, and there is enough here for at least a bit of televote support despite the early running order. The difference in the effect of running order on televote and jury scores could mean 'I.M' actually finishes higher with the juries than the televote.

The qualification odds for this entry ought to be somewhere around 60%, not as low as 23%. Expect Israel's odds to climb, however, when MBD inevitably impresses in rehearsals.

Serbia
Smarkets qualification chance: 74%

'In corpore sano' gives me the same feeling I got early on with Ukraine in 2021 — a divisive but catchy entry that has the potential to throw up a big surprise. Konstrakta is an excellent, charming performer and while the song isn't exactly the hardest to sing, I haven't heard her put a foot wrong in any live setting.

The big question with this entry, though, is how the lyrics are communicated. 'In corpore sano' has a much deeper meaning beyond the novelty of a stony-faced performer washing her hands on stage for three minutes, and the presence of these lyrics could have a big effect on Serbia's performance. Konstrakta has previously indicated her desire to show some of the Serbian lyrics on screen to communicate the song's meaning (it's why her national final performance comes with subtitles by default on YouTube), so we can probably expect some on screen lyrics in one form or another.

Going back to Ukraine 2021, this is what I said about 'Shum' when they were still a 2% shot to win their semi-final: 'Here's the thing about Eurovision: you vote for your favourite songs. If you don't like an entry, you'd have to vote for every other country in order to register your displeasure on the same scale. With this in mind, it's easy to see why 'Marmite' entries can often do will with the televote (case in point being Iceland's Hatari in 2019, which topped the televote in the first semi-final, despite finishing eighth with the jury).'

We've never seen anything like this at Eurovision before, so I sincerely hope audiences and jurors alike will take to it. Serbia may surprise many with how well they actually do.

Azerbaijan
Smarkets qualification chance: 60%

Now, I've got three likely qualifiers in the first three running order spots, and eventually that streak has to end. In the 16 semi-finals since the producer-led running order was introduced in 2013, never have the first four entries all qualified (and 3/4 has only happened twice), so the odds are stacked against at least one of the aforementioned countries. Of the first four, I think Azerbaijan is most likely to miss out.

Unlike Finland, Israel and Serbia, there's no USP for Azerbaijan in this semi-final. 'Fade to Black' is overshadowed by Australia later in the semi and will probably be forgotten by song 18.

The only thing that really explains such a high qualification chance for Nadir Rustamli in the odds is Azerbaijan's qualification record and a general misunderstanding about their Eurovision prowess. This record is not some innate thing that causes them to make the final almost every time, though. The strength of their past entries alongside the typical televote (and sometimes jury) support they get have produced a solid track record. However, while they finished in the top 10 every time in each of their first six appearances at Eurovision between 2008 and 2013, they have only achieved one top-10 finish since then. We could discuss for hours why this has happened, but what's clear is that Azerbaijan is not the Eurovision powerhouse it once was.

Georgia
Smarkets qualification chance: 22%

22% looks about right for Georgia to qualify, though their hopes may be boosted by the presence of certain countries that wouldn't usually opt for them. On top of a generous score from Azerbaijan, Circus Mircus could be helped by the fact the UK, Ireland and Australia are voting in this semi-final. 'Lock Me In' has a bit of a Noel Gallagher sound and feels like something that might be played on 6 Music (remember that the UK unexpectedly gave Georgia 12 points from the jury in 2016 with a similar British-sounding song).

Of course, support from those countries depends somewhat on the specific jury members they select, but if Circus Mircus do manage to defy the odds and get through, I suspect strong support from those three countries will have played a key role.

Malta
Smarkets qualification chance: 52%

Malta's Emma Muscat is a good vocalist and with a stronger song would be sailing through to the final. 'I Am What I Am' should probably make the jury top 10 given the uncommonly low standard of vocals in this semi-final, but the televote is an issue, as tends to be the case with Malta.

I expect a pretty strong televote/jury divide for this, so a 50-50 chance of qualifying seems about right.

San Marino
Smarkets qualification chance: 31%

Assuming there are plenty of Italians in the audience for this semi-final, Achille Lauro should get a rapturous reception, which in turn could have a subconscious effect on the viewing audience. Lauro's qualification chance, however, mainly rests on whether Italians across Europe come out and vote for him in the same way the Turkish diaspora came out for Serhat in 2019 (though he will miss out on a likely 24-point haul from Italy who are voting in the first semi-final). This could go either way.

Australia
Smarkets qualification chance: 83%

While Australia will find the televote harder to rack up points with and may end up on the qualification border with that side of the vote, I expect Sheldon Riley will get a very good jury result, potentially finishing in the top three.

Qualification shouldn't be an issue here, but a potentially middling televote score means a top-three finish is probably a step too far. Around 5th seems like a reasonable expectation.

Cyprus
Smarkets qualification chance: 65%

Andromache has only performed 'Ela' once publicly, and that was in an acoustic format, but with pitch perfect vocals, there is no reason to doubt her live capability.

Furthermore, I'm really interested to see how the Cypriot delegation will stage this, with the song being a bit too midtempo for their typical 'Fuego'/'Replay'/'El Diablo' arrangement.

I'd probably make Cyprus' qualification chance a bit higher than 65%, but there are still a lot of unknowns with this entry.

Ireland
Smarkets qualification chance: 17%

A 17% qualification chance looks rather low for Ireland given that they have all of their Eurovision friends voting in this semi-final (UK, Australia and Malta). For this to stand a chance, though, the staging will have to be a big improvement on the Irish national final. Thankfully for Brooke, the signs are pointing to a complete staging overhaul.

I don't think this is a likely qualifier but nor do I think it should be completely written off at this stage. There is some value in speculatively backing this to go through at 5.4.

North Macedonia
Smarkets qualification chance: 16%

I don't really have a lot to say for North Macedonia. 'Circles' is very unlikely to qualify unless juries end up rating it highly. A 1-in-6 chance looks fair.

Estonia
Smarkets qualification chance: 80%

Estonia is pretty underrated this year. 'Hope' has a fairly contemporary sound (though maybe a few years past the peak for this kind of music) and is optimistic in a contest where we have a lot of downtempo songs. In addition, Stefan's stage presence and diction have improved to no end since he won the Estonian national selection back in February.

'Hope' shouldn't have any problems qualifying and stands out in the running order, meaning Estonia could potentially even sneak a surprise top-three finish in this semi.

There's probably some more value in backing this for a top-10 finish at 4.1, however.

Romania
Smarkets qualification chance: 40%

WRS is a charismatic performer and ‘Llámame’ a catchy song, so I was very surprised to see Romania finishing last with the Euro Jury on zero points. WRS's look in the Romanian national final made him appear much older than he actually is (and looks without the beard and moustache), so if jurors were shown that performance, that could be one possible explanation for the song's underperformance. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that older performers are worse or less deserving of points, but there's probably some evidence to suggest that older artists tend to fare worse at Eurovision.

I'm slightly more bullish on Romania's chances than the odds suggest, but not by much.

Poland
Smarkets qualification chance: 98%

'River' has been overrated by the betting markets since the day it was leaked online, and while the song should still do relatively well for Poland, it has lost a lot of its momentum and now stands at odds of 65 to win the contest (about 1.5%. It traded in single figures back in February.)

After hearing 'River' a few times, there's not really a lot left to get from it due to its repetitive lyrics, nor does it bring anything new to the contest musically. The song clearly took inspiration from the successes of 'Arcade' and 'Tout l'Univers', but I can't see this one attaining the same results those two got. Furthermore, while Ochman is a strong singer, his lack of connection with the audience while performing will probably limit Poland's reach.

This isn't a contender for the win but a top-three finish in the semi-final is within reach, especially given Ochman's expected points haul from the Polish diaspora in Western Europe (expect big televote scores from the UK, Ireland, Germany, Sweden and Belgium).

Montenegro
Smarkets qualification chance: 22%

Vladana has really struggled to hit the big notes in live performances of 'Breathe'. Obviously Montenegro will pick up a lot of points from Serbia, but I don't really see where else the necessary points would come from for them to go through. This is a contender to finish last in the semi-final.

Belgium
Smarkets qualification chance: 73%

I've touched on a few of the underrated entries so far, so by the law of averages there must also be some overrated ones. Belgium is one of them.

'Miss You' may finish in the jury's top 10 but I remain unconvinced by the song's televote potential. Belgium could end up with a surprisingly low televote score, and based on live performances I've seen from Jérémie Makiese, I'm not sure his jury points will be enough to take him over the line. Maybe rehearsals will prove me wrong, but 73% is much too high in my book.

Sweden
Smarkets qualification chance: 99%

This will be the moment the semi-final has been leading up to. Sweden is the obvious winner in this heat — it's got a perfect running order spot and should finish inside the top two with both sections of the vote, at least.

I should probably declare a conflict of interest as this is my favourite entry this year, but Cornelia Jakobs is a great performer who conveys the emotion of 'Hold Me Closer' with effortless ease. There's a level of authenticity to this song that we haven't seen from Sweden in years, which should improve their relatively weak televote scores from recent contests.

I find it bizarre that some people are writing Sweden off as a potential Eurovision winner already. 'Hold Me Closer' is a full package entry with appeal on both sides of the scoreboard. Like Azerbaijan's once-prolific results, Sweden's relatively low televote scores in recent years are not based on some innate quality about Sweden, but rather the perceived lack of authenticity to their recent entries which have left viewers cold. Cornelia Jakobs' song represents a complete change of direction for Sweden, and any comparison to Sanna Nielsen is wrongheaded. 'Undo' (which still finished third, let's not forget) suffered from the same clinical, over-calculated songwriting issue as other Swedish entries. 'Hold Me Closer' shouldn't have those worries.

To pour some cold water on my bullishness, I should clarify that Sweden will probably need a second-half draw in the final to stand a chance of winning. It's going to be difficult for them if they end up with a first-half draw as they will be faced with the roadblock of Italy in slot 9. Anywhere other than a draw of 12 or 13 would be no good (and even then it's a big ask) as they would end up clashing with Italy or performing too early to generate a high enough televote score.

In the event of a second-half draw, expect Sweden to perform somewhere in the 20–22 slot. This would give them more than enough distance from Italy and would allow the EBU to pad 'Hold Me Closer' with some lower-performing upbeat songs while still having a strong closer.

Czech Republic
Smarkets qualification chance: 61%

Closing the second semi-final is Czech Republic. 'Lights Off' is in my top three this year in studio format, but unfortunately live renditions so far haven't lived up to expectations. Lead singer Dominika has struggled vocally, especially on the big note in the chorus.

With stronger vocals this would have been a contender for a top three finish in this semi, but now even Czech Republic's qualification is in doubt. Given its running order slot, the song should probably still qualify, but I'm not too optimistic about its prospects in the final.

Czech Republic doesn't have many friends at Eurovision, but this is yet another entry in this semi-final with likely strong UK/Ireland/Australia appeal (though those countries can't give points to everyone, of course).

Right now, I expect this will finish in the lower half of the top 10 with both sides of the vote, coming in around 8th or 9th overall.

Automatic qualifiers voting in this semi-final

Germany
Smarkets win chance: 0.1%

The rest of the Big Five upped their game this year or last, leaving Germany in their wake. 'Rockstars' could be the country's sixth bottom-two finish in the last seven contests. A massive change of approach is going to be needed for Germany in the coming years.

Spain
Smarkets win chance: 4%

The betting markets have finally woken up to Spain, with 'SloMo' having shortened from a price of 60 (1.7%) in March to 23 (4.3%) today. As one of the only songs in this genre, it doesn't have much to compete against, so Chanel basically gets a free run in that sense.

A win is probably off the cards right now but a strong top-10 finish is possible for Spain this year. The start of a Spanish revival at Eurovision?

United Kingdom
Smarkets win chance: 8%

I hate to burst everyone's bubble, but for me the UK is not a contender this year. Sam Ryder could well get the UK's best result for a decade, but I think a win is out of the question.

As a Eurovision trader you get a feel for which entries and performers have that winning spark, and which ones have the potential to amass enough televote and jury points to take them over the line. Sadly, the UK's entry doesn't fall under either of those categories. As a Brit I would love to be proven wrong, but as a trader one has to try and put one's objective hat on and assess things impartially. With the right staging, like Spain, a top-10 finish would be a good achievement and a step in the right direction for the UK, but all my Eurovision instincts are telling me 'Space Man' isn't going to come close to winning.

The UK gets overrated by betting markets year after year (more than any other country, in fact), which is understandable when you consider that most traders on the exchanges are UK-based. The markets tend to go into overdrive at any prospect of the UK doing well, with many people trading based on wish fulfilment rather than objective reality. The last four times the UK has been in the top 10 in the betting markets they finished 24th, 15th, 24th and 17th, so you have to learn to take the UK's odds with a pinch of salt.

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And that's it! Over the last few days I've reviewed every Eurovision 2022 entry's prospects ahead of the start of behind-closed-doors rehearsals tomorrow. As a reminder, I've got press accreditation thus year so I will be tweeting along and writing a daily summary when the second rehearsals start on Wednesday, so be sure to follow me on Twitter for the latest updates.

Image of Cornelia Jakobs by Jonatan Svensson Glad // CC-BY-SA 3.0 // via Wikimedia Commons.