Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Pre-Rehearsal Preview

This year, I was fortunate enough to receive press accreditation for Eurovision, so from next week I'll be tweeting coverage of rehearsals and publishing a daily review on Smarkets News. Before the rehearsals kick off, I've written a mammoth two-part preview of the semi-finals and the automatic qualifiers. Here is part one.

The first semi-final this year has a gender-genre split unlike any I can recall in recent memory. There are no fewer than six male bands (a majority of whom are performing upbeat songs with a novelty factor of some form) competing alongside seven female solo entries (which are mostly downtempo songs), plus four others for good measure.

With so many countries competing for the same kinds of votes, it will be much harder than usual for each entry to stand out. Most will face direct competition from others in similar styles, and if they end up considered the weakest in their camp, they are likely to get left by the wayside.

Albania
Smarkets qualification chance: 82%

Starting the show is Ronela Hajati with 'Sekret', an energetic number that will be a good opener to the contest. Albania has a lot of friends voting in this semi-final (Italy, Greece, Switzerland, Croatia and Slovenia) who should see this comfortably through, though it's unlikely to challenge at the top of the scoreboard.

Latvia
Smarkets qualification chance: 49%

Unlike in previous years when producers have typically counterposed the second entry with the first (by putting a slow song after an upbeat one or vice versa), the Italian broadcaster is doubling down on the energy with Latvia.

Citi Zēni are great at what they do, but their qualification hopes are far overstated by the odds in my view. Putting this second in the running order looks like an attempt by the producers to bury it, and it will probably be successful.

There are multiple songs in a similar vein to 'Eat Your Salad' appearing later in the semi-final (Moldova, Norway and to a lesser extent, Ukraine) that should all outperform Latvia in the televote. They are unlikely to finish in the jury's top 10 either, so I don't really see a viable path to this qualifying. Laying Latvia to qualify at 2.24 on Smarkets looks wise.

Lithuania
Smarkets qualification chance: 47%

Lithuania is the first entry in this heat that I'd assign the label 'too good to go'. By that I mean it's the type of entry that won't necessarily set the televote alight but which the juries are there to save from an early exit, e.g. Hooverphonic last year. The issue with the Hooverphonic comparison, though, is that 'The Wrong Place' really stood out in its semi-final, whereas there are a number of songs that fall into that category in this heat.

Monika Liu is a captivating and confident performer who transports us to another world with 'Sentimentai'. The song's national final staging already did a good job of creating a dreamlike, cinematic atmosphere, but with the full Eurovision facilities at their disposal, the Lithuanian team could really create a package that stands out early in this semi-final.

Though I still have 'Sentimentai' in the lower half of the top 10, I'm more confident in its qualification chance than the two songs it's sandwiched between.

Switzerland
Smarkets qualification chance: 63%

'Boys Do Cry' aims to achieve Switzerland's third qualification in a row, but that will be an uphill battle. Based on all available metrics so far, Switzerland's televote score is going to be low — the song ranks 38th out of 40 songs on the My Eurovision Scoreboard app and 39th on the 100k-strong EurovisionWorld.com poll. Marius Bear should fare better with the juries, but it remains to be seen whether their points will be enough to see him through.

If you had asked me before the release of the running order how to make this song stand out more, I would have suggested leaning into the classic feel, maybe by staging it in black and white on a 4:3 aspect ratio. However, the song's potential USP there is dampened by the fact it faces songs either side of it which also share a retro element.

I currently have Switzerland on the qualification borderline. A 63% chance feels a bit too high, so I've got some money against this qualifying.

Slovenia
Smarkets qualification chance: 16%

I don't have a lot to say on Slovenia. It's a nice song but right now it's looking like a non-qualifier. 'Disko' will probably need some serious jury love to head to Saturday's final.

Ukraine
Smarkets qualification chance: 98%

Ukraine is the big unknown in this year's contest. I wrote about the country's chance of winning six weeks ago, and my position remains much the same.

It seems like everyone is assuming everyone else will vote for Ukraine out of sympathy, but very few people I've spoken to actually intend to do so themselves. Likewise, many will readily admit that Ukraine isn't the best entry this year, yet are reluctant to acknowledge that the song wouldn't be a worthy winner on its own merit. There are a whole host of effects and idioms one can apply to 'Stefania'. Some combination of the bystander effect/Emperor's New Clothes/elephant in the room works here, I think.

Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the song was trading on Smarkets at a 4% chance of winning the contest. Nothing has changed musically since then. We haven't had a raft of amazing live performances from Kalush Orchestra or an insight into some groundbreaking staging concepts, yet they are now trading at a 50% chance to win. The market is not moving based on the inherent quality of the entry, but the extent to which bettors believe the geopolitical situation will lead people to vote for Ukraine. I mentioned in my previous blog that the effects of geopolitical events at Eurovision are usually overstated, so I think this means Kalush Orchestra will fall short of the win in the final.

'Stefania' is eminently beatable, but the question for the semi-final at least is who could beat it? If I had to pick a single contender it would be Greece, but for the time being I've just been laying a Ukraine semi-final win in the anticipation that a single jury-friendly rival emerges during rehearsals.

Bulgaria
Smarkets qualification chance: 13%

Bar some curious Moldova-2021-style results, 'Intention' is very unlikely to go through and is a strong contender to finish last in the semi-final.

Netherlands
Smarkets qualification chance: 95%

In its recorded form, 'De Diepte' is one of my favourite entries this year, but I worry a little bit about the Dutch team being able to recreate the song's atmospheric vocals in a live setting. I've been left a little underwhelmed by S10's live performances so far because they haven't evoked the magic of the studio version. With the addition of backing vocals (live and pre-recorded), that may change. 'De Diepte' has the potential for a top-three finish in this semi-final, but I want to reserve judgement until I've seen the full Eurovision package in rehearsals.

Moldova
Smarkets qualification chance: 65%

Moldova is a rare example where an entry's revamp ends up as a downgrade. The changes that have been made to ‘Trenulețul’ have stripped out a lot of its energy, leaving us with a bit of a messy mid-tempo track.

On the other hand, the moving elements of this year's stage provide some great potential for the inevitable train that will appear in this performance, which should help Moldova in the televote (even if it remains a jury non-qualifier). For the time being this is on the borderline for me.

As a side note: it's obviously uncomfortable to discuss but if Moldova is dragged into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, its qualification chance should probably increase, especially given that the song can be interpreted as a metaphor for Moldova's aim to move from its dependence on the east (Russia) to become a Westernised nation.

Portugal
Smarkets qualification chance: 73%

One of the dark horses of the competition. I can easily envision a scenario in which Portugal impresses in rehearsals and 'Saudade, saudade' emerges as a strong contender in this semi. The Portuguese team have proved themselves adept stagers (see 2017 and 2021), so hopefully some of that magic comes through again this year.

Croatia
Smarkets qualification chance: 36%

Like Lithuania, this is a 'too good to go' entry. Mia Dimšić comes across well as a performer and has delivered a solid vocal performance every time I've seen her. 'Guilty Pleasure' should receive some jury points for its quality, but the main obstacle to it qualifying is the plethora of similar entries it has to compete against. Still, I have this down as a likely qualifier, so 2.96 looks like a pretty tasty bet.

Denmark
Smarkets qualification chance: 24%

Unfortunately, I don't think 'The Show' stands out and I still don't know who it's for, exactly. When a song falls into that camp, a very low televote score usually awaits. Not a qualifier for me.

Austria
Smarkets qualification chance: 43%

In studio format, this would be a likely qualifier, but live performances of 'Halo' have showcased some less-than-stellar vocals (to put it mildly) that the Austrian delegation have worked tirelessly to get removed from YouTube. Right now I don't see how Austria overcomes its live vocal problem, so there's still some value in laying this to qualify.

Iceland
Smarkets qualification chance: 34%

‘Með hækkandi sól’ is a really pleasant song to listen to, quite similar to the music of First Aid Kit. In another semi-final it might stand out as a breath of fresh air, but Iceland faces direct competition from the Netherlands, Portugal, Croatia and Armenia and is arguably the weakest of the group. Not a likely qualifier, unfortunately.

Greece
Smarkets qualification chance: 91%

Amanda Tenfjord has showcased pretty much flawless vocals in live performances of 'Die Together', but she will need to connect a bit more with the song and audience in order to reach this song's full Eurovision potential.

Right now, this looks to me like Ukraine's main challenger in this semi-final. Greece should do very well with the juries and a late running order slot should make up for some of the song's potential televote deficit. 

Even without Cyprus, Greece has some friends in this semi-final (Albania, Armenia and Bulgaria) and is probably set for an extra injection of Norwegian points for the Norway-born singer. I think this entry is being overlooked for a semi-final win.

Norway
Smarkets qualification chance: 94%

'Give That Wolf a Banana' is likely to finish in the top three with the televote, at least. On the jury side, Subwoolfer are not going to be completely tanked as GTWAB is still a well-produced pop song and performed well. Somewhere in the 3rd-5th position looks about right as things stand.

Armenia
Smarkets qualification chance: 78%

Closing the show is Armenia, the country that probably benefits most from the running order. Rosa Linn has been provided with a platform that sets her up as the freshest female-led folky entry in the minds of viewers and juxtaposes her nicely with the preceding Norway. The producers putting 'Snap' on last also suggests that the Armenian delegation might have some interesting staging planned that requires a bit of dismantling, so that will be something to look out for when rehearsals start.

While I'm not fully aboard the Armenia hype train, they are likely to end up in the final for the first time since 2017.

Automatic qualifiers voting in this semi-final

France
Smarkets win chance: 1%

It might have been easy for France to try and recreate their success from 2021 by sending 'Voilà'-esque entries in subsequent years with increasingly diminishing returns, so 'Fulenn' marks a nice and unexpected change of direction. If absolutely everything goes right for them, a top-10 finish could be on the cards, but nothing more.

Italy
Smarkets win chance: 17%

Italy ought to be favourite to win the contest right now, not Ukraine. 'Brividi' has been doing very well with the Euro Jury and sits top of the EurovisionWorld poll, without even mentioning the televote support they tend to get. Mahmood and Blanco are going to be strong contenders with both sections of the vote — even if a 9th place slot in the running order harms their televote score slightly — meaning Italy could well be the first country since the 90s to win Eurovision twice in a row.