Eurovision 2022: Semi-final 2 Predictions and Best Bets

On Tuesday, I’m happy to say both my qualification tips (back Lithuania @ 2.86 and lay Latvia @ 1.69) paid off, though the speculative tip for Greece to win the semi-final doesn’t appear at this stage like it will materialise.

Tonight's semi-final is much harder to predict, however. For me there are two nailed-on qualifiers and three non-qualifiers, with the remaining 13 countries (to varying degrees) battling it out for 8 spots.

Note: qualification chances are my estimates, not Smarkets odds.

Finland

Vocals are a real struggle at times, but improved slightly from rehearsals and there should be enough fans of this kind of music to carry The Rasmus through. Expect high scores from Estonia and Sweden.

Prediction: Tele 7th, Jury 11th, Overall 8th
Qualification chance: 66%

Israel

Michael Ben David sells the hell out of this with a polished performance and strong vocals, but the quality of the song itself may be a black mark in the jury’s book and a very early running order slot will damage its televote appeal. In with a shout but not a likely qualifier.

Prediction: Tele 13th, Jury 9th, Overall 12th
Qualification chance: 41%

Serbia

Microphone issues remained in last night’s jury show but the use of some on-screen lyrics will broaden its appeal. There’s nothing like this in the contest and there should be enough artistically-minded jurors to put Serbia in their top 10. Televote score could surprise, especially with a near-guaranteed 24 points coming from Montenegro and North Macedonia, though this has a big range of outcomes.

Prediction: Tele 3rd, Jury 5th, Overall 4th
Qualification chance: 87%

Azerbaijan

Should end up with a solid jury score, though Nadir Rustamli was only at about 70% for most of the performance last night. Televote may be an issue with an early running order slot and similar options available later on.

Prediction: Tele 14th, Jury 7th, Overall 11th
Qualification chance: 49%

Georgia

Downgraded to the out of contention group after watching the whole show last night. Unlikely to finish in the top ten with either side of the vote.

Prediction: Tele 16th, Jury 17th, Overall 16th
Qualification chance: 11%

Malta

Vocals strong enough for Malta to receive their usual high jury score, despite the song being pedestrian. There’s not a lot in this semi-final that encroaches on Malta’s musical territory, so there’s a niche carved out that should appeal to some televoters (especially the under-10 demographic). May end up battling Ireland for a qualification spot.

Prediction: Tele 11th, Jury 8th, Overall 10th
Qualification chance: 50%

San Marino

Took the roof off in yesterday’s show and was one of the highlights of the night. Achille Lauro performed like a superstar and San Marino looks like great value to qualify, especially if the Italian diaspora comes through for their homegrown performer.

Prediction: Tele 6th, Jury 10th, Overall 6th
Qualification chance: 74%

Australia

Australia is set for another big televote/jury divide. May be top three with the latter despite Sheldon Riley not being at his best last night, but the repetitive nature of the song and lack of audience connection means the former may be a struggle. Likely qualifier, though.

Prediction: Tele 15th, Jury 2nd, Overall 7th
Qualification chance: 76%

Cyprus

A really nice song in studio form but falls flat live. Andromache’s vocals were better last night than in rehearsals but this still feels unmemorable and lethargic compared to the burst of energy and charisma delivered by Ireland after. Not much value left in laying this to qualify, unfortunately.

Prediction: Tele 10th, Jury 15th, Overall 14th
Qualification chance: 35%

Ireland

Brooke delivered a solid performance last night and stands out as charismatic and fun in this running order. All of Ireland’s allies are voting in this semi (UK/Australia/Malta), so this is decent value to qualify at 4.1.

Prediction: Tele 8th, Jury 13th, Overall 9th
Qualification chance: 56%

North Macedonia

Likely to finish near the bottom with both sides of the vote.

Prediction: Tele 17th, Jury 18th, Overall 18th
Qualification chance: 4%

Estonia

Charming performance; solid mid-level qualifier.

Prediction: Tele 5th, Jury 6th, Overall 5th
Qualification chance: 83%

Romania

WRS did well last night but not sure this is going to be anyone’s favourite. In the mix still but not a likely qualifier.

Prediction: Tele 9th, Jury 14th, Overall 13th
Qualification chance: 41%

Poland

Seems like Sweden’s biggest challenger in this semi. Strong contender for top three on both sides of the vote given strong vocals and Polish diaspora, even if its televote appeal is otherwise weaker. Still not sold on the visual effects.

Prediction: Tele 2nd, Jury 3rd, Overall 2nd
Qualification chance: 97%

Montenegro

Vladana delivered her best vocal performance when it mattered, which should be enough to take her off the bottom, but this doesn’t stand out at all in the running order.

Prediction: Tele 18th, Jury 16th, Overall 17th
Qualification chance: 6%

Belgium

Two bum notes towards the end of the performance in last night’s jury show should knock some points off Belgium’s jury total, even if it still finishes in the top 10. Feels lacklustre and can’t see a whole lot of televote appeal. Good value to NQ.

Prediction: Tele 12th, Jury 12th, Overall 15th
Qualification chance: 35%

Sweden

Leading contender to win the semi-final but plagued with technical issues again last night. It took the camera operator about 5 seconds to turn on a spotlight in the second verse, a crew member was in shot turning the disc prop and I’m pretty sure the fireworks went off too early in the final chorus. Quite shoddy production overall from RAI and Cornelia’s delivery felt colder and more sterile than Melfest. This might not be a problem for the juries but televoters may struggle to find a connection if she can’t revive the relaxed charm of her first Melfest performance. There’s a lot of work to do here and the whole thing needs tightening up if ‘Hold Me Closer’ is to even stand a chance of being the contender it deserves to be in Saturday’s final. The opportunity is there, given a likely semi-final win and a 70% chance of being drawn in the second-half, but can Sweden take it?

Prediction: Tele 1st, Jury 1st, Overall 1st
Qualification chance: 100%

Czech Republic

We Are Domi did what they needed to do last night, delivering one of the best stage shows of the semi in the process. Qualification concerns have completely disappeared and this has a decent shot at ending up in the top three.

Prediction: Tele 4th, Jury 4th, Overall 3rd
Qualification chance: 88%

Best bets

Lay Belgium to qualify @ 1.6

Back San Marino to qualify @ 2.12

Back Ireland to qualify @ 4.1

Full forecast