Eurovision 2022: Semi-final 1 Predictions and Best Bets

That time of the year has come around already. Eurofans across the world will be glued to their TV screens tonight to watch the first Eurovision semi-final of 2022. Here are my quick predictions for each country and best bets.

Note: qualification chances are my estimates, not Smarkets odds.

Albania

For another country, this would be borderline, but televote friends (Italy, Greece, Switzerland) should carry it through.
Prediction: 6th–10th
Qualification chance: 80%

Latvia

An energetic performance, but running order harms them. Likely to battle Moldova for a qualification spot, but based on the response in last night’s jury show, will probably lose that battle.
Prediction: 9th–14th
Qualification chance: 35%

Lithuania

Borderline, but a solid jury performance and a guaranteed 20+ televote points from Norway and Latvia make Monika Liu slightly more likely than not to qualify.
Prediction: 7th–12th
Qualification chance: 61%

Switzerland

Televote will be an issue, and a rough jury performance last night means it will likely miss out.
Prediction: 11th–15th
Qualification chance: 23%

Slovenia

Gets lost in the running order and few friends here.
Prediction: 15th–17th
Qualification chance: 9%

Ukraine

Contender for the semi win but audience response was nowhere near as rapturous as expected in last night’s show. Jury scores could also hamper it.
Prediction: 1st–3rd
Qualification chance: 99%

Bulgaria

Potential last place, but some televote support may take it off the bottom.
Prediction: 16th–17th
Qualification chance: 8%

Netherlands

Third behind Ukraine/Greece is a reasonable assumption. Strong jury credentials but wide televote appeal looks more difficult.
Prediction: 2nd–6th
Qualification chance: 94%

Moldova

Surprisingly got the biggest response from the crowd in last night’s show, but don’t see a scenario in which this is in the jury top 10, especially when compared to the two songs it’s sandwiched between. Still borderline.
Prediction: 8th–13th
Qualification chance: 46%

Portugal

Potential jury top three but other televote options available. Was potential dark horse material but hasn’t really materialised.
Prediction: 3rd–7th
Qualification chance: 94%

Croatia

Staging is weak but strong vocal performance in last night’s jury show could put Mia Dimšić in with a shout.
Prediction: 9th–14th
Qualification chance: 39%

Denmark

Would need a jury haul to take it through, though it stands out as a burst of energy compared to the previous two songs in the running order.
Prediction: 11th–15th
Qualification chance: 25%

Austria

Vocal concerns have been masked by fairly seamless blending with heavy backing vocals. Got through it in the jury show, but still a coin toss.
Prediction: 8th–13th
Qualification chance: 54%

Iceland

Gorgeous harmonies in the final minute of the song could attract jurors, and a late running order slot should help their televote score somewhat. Norway/Denmark/Netherlands could help this sneak through.
Prediction: 8th–13th
Qualification chance: 51%

Greece

Biggest challenger to Ukraine in this semi-final. Should have cross televote/jury appeal and still looks like value at 4.8 to win the semi, especially with an added dose of Norwegian points coming for the Norway-born singer.
Prediction: 1st–2nd
Qualification chance: 99%

Norway

Potential televote top two in the semi-final, but probably not enough jury appeal to win.
Prediction: 2nd–6th
Qualification chance: 95%

Armenia

Strong vocals, memorable staging and a late running order slot make this a solid mid-range qualifier.
Prediction: 4th–8th
Qualification chance: 87%

Best bets

Back Greece to win semi-final 1 @ 4.8

Back Lithuania to qualify @ 2.86

Lay Latvia to qualify @ 1.69

Full forecast 

Image of Amanda Tenfjord by EBU / Nathan Reinds