Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Prediction: Djokovic can overcome Alcaraz in thrilling five-setter

Andy Schooler

16 July 2023

Sunday’s Wimbledon final sees a young pretender take on the tennis establishment - and it feels like we have seen this situation before.

While Carlos Alcaraz is already a Grand Slam champion and technically number one in the world, Novak Djokovic remains the king in most people’s eyes and beating him in a best-of-five match remains the sport’s ultimate test.

We saw these two face off a little over a month ago on the clay at Roland Garros. On that occasion, Alcaraz was a firm favourite in the market but, after a tight opening two sets, a nightmare ensued for the Spaniard.

His body cramped and, most worryingly, he later admitted this was down to nerves rather than fatigue. He has vowed to prepare differently for this rematch, so clearly has it on his mind. At least this time there’s not as much expectation – Alcaraz is priced at 2.74 to prevent Djokovic winning what would be a record-equalling eighth Wimbledon title.

While Djokovic has long reigned over Centre Court – he hasn’t lost in the arena since 2013 – form suggests Alcaraz has more than a puncher’s chance. He brutally dismissed Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev in the last two rounds, winning each match in straight sets with his aggressive approach reaping dividends.

Novak Djokovic: hasn't lost on centre court at Wimbledon since 2013

However, neither of those opponents are as comfortable on the grass as Djokovic, who you can be sure won’t make the same mistake of returning from as deep as Medvedev did in Friday’s semi-final. That tactic left the Russian very vulnerable to Alcaraz’s excellent drop shots.

Djokovic will also get more serves back – we are talking about one of the best returners of all time as well as one of the best defenders.

Alcaraz’s forehand will hit winners, as he did so successfully when beating Djokovic in Madrid last season, but I doubt he’ll have the same amount of joy as against his other opponents in the past fortnight.

While more spectacular, that weapon can also produce errors and I’d again expect the Djokovic forehand to be the more consistent shot. The Serb’s serve will also need dealing with, especially given the much-publicised success he’s had in tie-breaks so far, winning a record 14 in a row at Grand Slam level this year.

The problem for Alcaraz is that Djokovic has lost his delivery only three times in six matches in the tournament so far. His ability to hit the lines more than compensates for the fact he doesn’t have the fastest serve out there.

In short, I feel Djokovic’s skills can fend off the Alcaraz assault, although the Spaniard can be expected to make things hard for the Serb. This has the potential to be an excellent contest and I very much doubt it will be settled in straight sets.

In terms of a bet, I like Djokovic to win 3-2 and use his mental strength to prevail. That’s on offer at a juicy 5.8.