Wimbledon Men's Final Betting Tips: Back Djokovic to win a thriller

Sunday’s Wimbledon men’s singles final will be a repeat of last year’s title match but will Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic again? Andy Schooler takes a look…

It’s hard to address Sunday’s Wimbledon final without first returning to our outright preview which is something of an elephant in the room in terms of this match.

We backed Carlos Alcaraz but also laid Novak Djokovic which means we’re pretty much all in on the Spaniard here – not really the ideal position for exchange punters.

The theory at the time included the possibility that Djokovic wouldn’t even make the start line following his knee surgery early last month, not to mention the fact that he’d arrived in London without a title to his name in 2024.

Those who have watched him over the past fortnight will struggle to believe either of those facts.

He’s cruised through the draw, losing only two sets and improving with each round.

The seven-time champion has dominated Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti in his last two matches, beating both in straight sets. As an added bonus, he received a walkover when Alex de Minaur withdrew and he arrives at the final having spent four hours fewer on court than his opponent.

Once again happy to take on the crowd, Djokovic looks absolutely determined to bank Grand Slam title number 25 – a feat which would lift him clear at the top of the outright majors list for both men and women. He currently shares top spot with Margaret Court.

The issue is he’s not faced anyone in Alcaraz’s class for some time and will likely need to continue that upward curve to avenge last year’s final defeat.

Djokovic has played only two matches against top-10 players in 2024 and has lost them both. His last win over such an opponent came at the ATP Finals in November when he defeated Jannik Sinner.

So, as well as he’s played, there’s certainly a knowledge gap in terms of how he’ll do when faced with that jump up in class, although history shows us just what a competitor he is.

The good news for the 37-year-old is that Alcaraz has not been at his brilliant best, dropping a set in four of his six matches in SW19. He walked the tightrope against Frances Tiafoe, coming within a tie-break of defeat, and has also fallen behind against Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev in the last two rounds.

So, he’s also got the issue of needing to raise his game to deal with a top-quality foe.

At least the challenge of facing Djokovic has brought the best out of Alcaraz in the past with their series producing a host of tightly-contested matches.

Djokovic leads 3-2 though, beating Alcaraz twice since last year’s five-set final here.

The last clash, on a fast indoor court which didn’t suit Alcaraz, was won in straight sets but in the other four meetings, both players have won at least a set with three going the distance.

Another five-setter could very much be on the cards here. Alcaraz has struggled to produce his best consistently, while it wouldn’t be a surprise for Djokovic to struggle a bit more when the Spaniard does find the groove.

Backing the match to go five sets looks a decent play, while I’m also tempted to side with a player who has so often over the years produced his best when it really matters.

Therefore Djokovic to edge it 3-2 is also worth a try, especially for those seeking a bigger price.

Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Prediction

Back five-setter @ 3.0
Back Djokovic to win 3-2 @ 7.0