US Open Women's Singles Final Betting Tips: Who will finish the job in New York?

Andy Schooler backed both finalists in his US Open outright preview but will Jessica Pegula or Aryna Sabalenka emerge victorious? Read his final verdict…

If you followed my outright preview of the US Open women’s singles, you are sitting pretty.

Having already cashed from the lay of top seed Iga Swiatek, you’ll now have both finalists onside and will presumably be cheering on Jessica Pegula to beat Aryna Sabalenka - the American was tipped up at 14, whereas Sabalenka went off at 3.85.

However, this preview is about who will win the final, a match for which Sabalenka is the 1.34 favourite.

She’s now won 26 of her last 27 matches at the hardcourt Grand Slams and, having lost in last year’s final in New York, will finally be looking to add this title to her two Australian Open crowns.

Sabalenka has lost just one set so far in the tournament and stayed calm when things were going awry in her semi-final against Emma Navarro, managing to refocus in the second-set tie-break following an error-strewn spell during which she failed to serve out the match.

Her power is the big threat to Pegula here. Navarro coped pretty well with it, yet Sabalenka still found ways through her defence and I suspect that will be the case again here.

Pegula is in great form though. She’s won 15 of her 16 matches during this current hardcourt swing. However, what’s significant is the one loss – it came against Sabalenka in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago.

That success moved Sabalenka into a 5-2 lead on the head-to-head, although it’s only 2-2 on this surface, including one win for Pegula in New York back in 2020.

What could be a factor in this contest is that it is Pegula’s first Grand Slam final and nerves may well have a part to play.

She certainly struggled early on in her semi-final – also a first at this level – when Karolina Muchova led 6-1 2-0 and then held a point to go up a double-break in the second set.

Pegula deserves great credit for turning that around but I’d suggest another slow start here will be harder to come back from.

The New Yorker admitted she would need to put pressure on Sabalenka’s serve in order to find a route to victory – the second seed has held 89% of the time in the tournament so far. Navarro had some success on returns, particularly on second serve, but holding on to her own may be tougher for Pegula.

Sabalenka holds an advantage of seven percentage points when it comes to second-serve points won at both this tournament and in the pair’s head-to-head series.

It’s an area where she can win this match, especially if she can deal with Pegula’s attacking efforts as well as she did against Navarro.

I think the bet here is Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

All five of her wins over Pegula have come via this method and there’s clear potential for Pegula to be feeling rather edgy early on.

With 27 of the last 29 US Open finals being won by the player winning the opening set, Sabalenka in straight sets gets the nod at 1.92.

US Open Women’s Singles Final Prediction

Back Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 1.92