US Open Women's Singles Betting Tips: Sabalenka deserves favourite status at Flushing Meadows

Fresh from tipping Qinwen Zheng to win Olympic gold at 18.5, Andy Schooler is back to preview the 2024 US Open women’s singles…

I remember putting up Coco Gauff to win last year’s US Open on these pages and she duly delivered.

That selection was largely based on her pre-tournament results and following the form has often proved a good choice for punters at the US Open.

There was plenty to like about Iga Swiatek and Bianca Andreescu coming into the 2022 and 2019 tournaments, and while many remember Kim Clijsters’ fairytale comeback of 2009, her results in the warm-up events had shown she was more than capable of challenging for the title.

This year the player tearing it up at the big tournaments in Montreal and Cincinnati has been Jessica Pegula and the scene is possibly set for her to make a big breakthrough – just like Gauff did 12 months ago.

Pegula won in Toronto but fell just short of an historic double by losing the Cincinnati final. She, however, played very well.

The flat-hitting Pegula spoke about being happy in the fast conditions of Cincinnati – “I don't think anybody really wants to play me on a fast court” – and so she’ll be encouraged to hear that US Open organisers are aiming for a medium-fast court surface.

Tournament director Stacey Allaster last week said the average court pace rating at Flushing Meadows was 42, almost identical to that recorded in Cincinnati, where they also used the same balls.

While Pegula looks well placed to go well at a decent price, Aryna Sabalenka, the player who ended the American’s winning run in that Cincy final, still looks the one they all have to beat.

She recorded a statement win over world number one Swiatek in the Cincinnati semis and the speedy conditions will only aid her chances.

Swiatek prefers a slower surface and can often be rushed on a speedy hardcourt. She has won just a single Slam on hard (admittedly it was here in 2022) and I’d be happy to lay her, just as we did at the Olympics when she was beaten in the semi-finals on her favourite clay.

Sabalenka’s power, however, becomes an even greater threat which gives her opponents little time to react. She also possesses a strong serve and her first-strike tennis looks well suited to this tournament.

The Belarusian has been very consistent in New York, finishing runner-up last year after semi-final showings in 2022 and 2021, and should go close to landing the title for the first time.

While following the form has often proved profitable, this is also a tournament at which surprises have occurred – think Emma Raducanu’s victory as a qualifier in 2021.

With that in mind, let’s also pick a couple of longer shots.

Paula Badosa has stormed back to form in the past few weeks and is possibly being underrated at 48.

As a former world number two, the Spaniard has pedigree and recent results suggest that, after a terrible time with injuries, she’s ready to challenge at this level.

As a wild card, she emerged as champion in Washington and backed that up with a run to the last four in Cincinnati where she tested Pegula, losing in three sets.

Finally, consider Marta Kostyuk at a three-figure price.

The Russian has enjoyed a fine season and on hardcourts has gone 19-8, making the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, the semis of Indian Wells and the final in San Diego (where she beat Pegula).

She played well at the recent Olympics and since returning to the hard surface, it’s taken Swiatek and Emma Navarro to beat her.

Kostyuk need a helping hand from the draw or big guns losing early, but certainly has potential.

Recommended Bets:

Back Jessica Pegula @ 14
Back Aryna Sabalenka @ 3.85
Lay Iga Swiatek @ 4.4
Back Paula Badosa @ 48
Back Marta Kostyuk @ 100