US Open Men's Singles Final Betting Tips: Thrilling final in prospect at Flushing Meadows

Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s US Open final between world number one Jannik Sinner and home hope Taylor Fritz.

By defeating Briton Jack Draper in Friday’s semifinals, Jannik Sinner became only the fifth man this century to win 22 Grand Slam matches in the same season.

You can probably guess the other four but, for the record, they are Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.

In short, he is now living in exalted company and the stat helps explain why he’s just 1.25 to win Sunday’s final and add the US Open title to his Australian Open crown.

Since losing his opening set of the tournament, the Italian has dropped just one more – to Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals – with Tommy Paul and Draper among the players beaten in straight sets by the world number one.

Sinner is now 29-2 on hardcourts in 2024 and it’s not hard to see why he’s a short-priced favourite here.

He dealt well with Draper’s power, while it was notable that Fritz was troubled by Frances Tiafoe’s aggression during their semi-final, in which he fought back from two sets to one down.

Expect Sinner to go for his shots here in a bid to unsettle his opponent. While there has been significant improvement from Fritz from the back of the court, few are better from that position than Sinner.

That is, of course, if Sinner is fully fit.

He suffered a worrying fall against Draper, hurting his wrist. While he was OK in the heat of battle and with the adrenaline flowing, it’s impossible to know how he will feel when he wakes up on Saturday morning.

That issue potentially increases Fritz’s chances – although a decent case can be made for him in any case.

The head-to-head is split at 1-1. Both matches took place on the sluggish hardcourts of Indian Wells, Fritz winning in 2021 when Sinner was still coming through the ranks before the Italian took his revenge last season, winning 6-4 in the decider.

While Sinner’s first serve has had the greater cut-through in those matches, Fritz holds a significant advantage on second-serve points won – 55% to Sinner’s 41%. He will surely look to go after those second serves again here.

Across the US Open so far, Fritz has won more points (percentage wise) on both first and second serve, while he’s held his own deal 94% of the time. Sinner is down at 81% but, unsurprisingly has considerably better return stats, breaking serve 42% of the time to Fritz’s 24%.

The Fritz serve has certainly stood up well across the rounds but Sinner is one of the best returners in the world – no-one has got a higher percentage of returns in play during this tournament.

Still, I think there’s enough in the stats to suggest Fritz won’t be blown away here.

He’ll also have significant crowd support and so I think the bet here is to back a Sinner victory with both players to win at least one set.

For those too concerned by Sinner’s wrist to get involved with that, Fritz at odds-against to cover a 4.5-game handicap is worth considering.

US Open Men’s Singles Final Prediction

Back Jannik Sinner to win and both players to win at least one set @ 2.12