French Open men's singles tips: Djokovic the favourite, but don't rule out Nadal

Setting the scene

Novak Djokovic starts the 2022 French Open as the favourite to win a third title at Roland Garros after a complicated start to the year that saw him miss out on the Australian Open then struggle initially on clay by making an early exit from Monte Carlo. 

But beyond the outspoken Serb, there are two other leading contenders to win in Paris: Rafael Nadal, the all-time king of clay, who is chasing an astonishing 14th crown, and the exciting up-and-comer Carlos Alcaraz, a player surely set for Grand Slam success in the not-too-distant future. 

Djokovic is given a 29.4% shot at success in Paris, while Alcaraz has captured the imagination sufficiently to be given a 26.3% chance. Nadal is the outsider of the three on 17.2%. 

The top trio

The widely held logic has been that this title is to be contested between these leading three players. Unlike in the women’s draw, which would be blown open should red-hot favourite Iga Swiatek be eliminated, a slip from any of these men would simply open the door for the other two.

The draw, though, has not been kind. All three are in the top half, with Djokovic and Nadal on course for a fourth-round meeting. Alcaraz could lie in wait later in the tournament.

Of this trio, Djokovic looks the most bulletproof. He is, after all, coming off the back of winning in Rome, and while he lost to Alcaraz in Madrid, it is the Italian tournament that is considered to be a better gauge of future performance in Paris. Indeed, the World No.1 dominated in the Italian capital, going all the way without dropping a set. 

Nadal, meanwhile, has physical concerns. He has yet to record a significant win on clay this year and is struggling with a foot injury. This must cast doubt upon his durability over five sets, although he has famously overcome such issues before at Roland Garros, where he has an incredible 105-3 winning record.

Alcaraz, on the other hand, is putting up staggering numbers both in terms of his serving and returning. He has already swept aside any doubts over his ability, but his lack of experience in the second week of a Grand Slam certainly counts against him. 

Rafael Nadal has an astonishing 105-3 career record at Roland Garros

Tsitsipas a danger in the bottom half

With the leading contenders all in the top half of the draw, it does open up the bottom half significantly.

No.4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is on offer at 6.4, should be licking his lips. The Greek may have a 4-17 record against the trio of favourites, but he will only have to overcome a maximum of one of these players to win the crown. Furthermore, his meetings with them have typically been competitive. 

The most dangerous players in his half of the draw are the ones who typically struggle mentally on the big stage: Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev. All three are potential semi-final opponents, at which point he should have the mental fortitude to prevail. 

And the Greek has history in the French Open, too. Last year, he reached the final and was two sets up against Djokovic before folding. If he can overcome these mental demons, he is undoubtedly the greatest threat in causing an upset.

Djokovic, though, deservedly starts as favourite. The momentum has been moving in his direction in recent weeks and that win in Rome suggests he is in the perfect place to win a third French Open. 

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Novak Djokovic @ 3.4