French Open Mens Singles Final Betting Tips: Can Alcaraz be stopped?

Andy Schooler looks ahead to Sunday’s French Open men’s singles final between Alex Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz.

At times during this French Open, you’ve just had to marvel at the ability of Alex Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz but it also has to be said that this has not been a tournament during which either man has been consistently brilliant.

Perhaps we got used to the Rafael Nadal masterclasses where he’s totally dominated opponents from round one to the final but it doesn’t matter how you win a Grand Slam title – there will be no asterisk next to either of these men on the roll of honour come Sunday night.

It does, however, make taking a firm view on the outcome of this final more difficult.

As is his wont, Alcaraz played some outstanding shots during his semi-final win over Jannik Sinner – a stunning backhand crosscourt winner from a defensive position in the fourth set being arguably the most memorable – but it was a match which failed to truly live up to its billing as the levels of both men went up and down.

It was certainly a big win for the Spaniard who is, unsurprisingly, a considerable (1.36) favourite for Sunday’s final.

It was hard to read too much into Zverev’s victory over Casper Ruud in the second semi.

Ruud was clearly not well, regularly being treated for a stomach complaint.

Zverev ended up dominant, as he was in the quarter-finals against Alex de Minaur, but it should be remembered how he struggled against Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune in the rounds prior, needing five sets in both matches.

The serve was impressive against Ruud with Zverev winning 86% of his first-serve points and banging down 19 aces. Yet, it is easier to garner success against a player whose movement looked to be affected by his illness and it’s hard to imagine Zverev having such success on Sunday.

The German will be bidding to win his first Grand Slam title in this match so Alcaraz has that vital experience advantage – he’s won both of his previous major finals.

Yet Zverev will bring a 5-4 win-loss record to Court Philippe Chatrier, including a victory on this very court two years ago at the quarter-final stage. Alcaraz actually leads 2-1 on clay in total, though.

It’s a series which is hard to read into. It has swung one way then the other with one notable feature being Alcaraz’s ability – at times – to dominate on serve.

He’s held serve throughout four of their last seven matches showing that when he serves well, Zverev struggles. That probably explains Alcaraz’s position as firm favourite.

If that occurs again, then Alcaraz will likely justify his odds but it’s harder to hold regularly on clay – Alcaraz’s two claycourt wins in the series both came in the faster, altitude-led conditions in Madrid – and Zverev certainly has the power to go toe to toe in the baseline exchanges if he can get enough deep balls back on return.

My view from a betting perspective is that Zverev is too big at the prices.

He’s clearly playing well and has obviously troubled Alcaraz in their previous encounters, beating him earlier this year at the Australian Open when the underdog.

The German could be worth a punt at 3.4 to win the match, although I’m not convinced that will actually happen.

Simply siding with Zverev to keep things close looks a better option.

Laying the straight-sets Alcaraz win at 3.05 is tempting but my suggestion is actually to back Zverev on the game handicap.

He gets a five-game start and can be backed at 1.78.

French Open Men’s Singles Final Prediction

Back Alex Zverev (-5) to win on the game handicap @ 1.78