Australian Open women's final: Collins offers value

Ashleigh Barty will become the first home player to win the Australian Open Women’s Singles title if she can overcome Danielle Collins on Saturday.

The Australian has looked a cut above the rest of the pack throughout the fortnight of competition, dropping only 21 games on her way to the final and spending only a little over six hours on court across her five matches.

No surprise, then, that she is priced at just 1.18 to overcome Collins, who is on offer at 5.0.

Barty on the brink of history

Of course, there is massive expectation on Barty, who is the first Australian women to reach the final in Melbourne since Wendy Turnbull in 1980. Her mentality on the big occasion, though, has been formidable.

She has converted two of her three previous visits to Grand Slam semi-finals to titles, while she also won the WTA Finals in 2019.

Combined with the outstanding form she presently finds herself in, she promises to be exceptionally difficult to stop.

There have been few signs – yet – of the pressure that should be bearing her down, and if that continues, she will surely be champion come Saturday evening.

Collins aiming for an upset

Collins’ run to the final has been impressive, but she has not faced anyone in the league of Barty. Indeed, the only seeds she has tackled have been Elise Mertens, who was dispatched in three, and an edgy Iga Swiatek, who was swept away for the loss of just five games in the semi-final.

She will now find herself up against Barty, whose ability to neutralise opponents has been central to her run to the final. After all, Collins will be the fourth successive power player she has faced in Melbourne, and all so far have been dispatched with relative ease.

Where the American can take some hope, though, is in her previous matches against Barty. Although the record stands 3-1 in favour of the WTA World No.1, the past two, played on Australian hard courts, have been split evenly and have been nip-and-tuck affairs.

While Barty deservedly starts as clear favourite, a combination of the pressure on her plus the tight recent head-to-head meetings suggest that this may be a closer encounter than billed.

With that in mind, Danielle Collins +4.5 games, which is on offer at 2.2, looks good value.

Recommended bet

Danielle Collins +4.5 games @ 2.2