Australian Open Thursday tips: Nadal and Berrettini set for gruelling battle

It’s the first semi-final day at the Australian Open on Thursday, with Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini set to do battle in the Men’s Singles, while over in the women’s draw No.1 seed Ashleigh Barty faces Madison Keys. It promises to be a thrilling day of action.

War of attrition

Nadal and Berrettini have only met once previously on Tour. That came in the semi-finals of the 2019 US Open, in which the Spaniard triumphed in three sets. Berrettini, though, has improved since then.

The progress of both players has not been without problems. Nadal admitted after his five-setter with Denis Shapovalov on Tuesday that he was physically “destroyed” after coming through in gruelling conditions.

Berrettini won a similarly lengthy match with Gael Monfils, but did so in the relative cool of the night. It was the second time in Melbourne he has gone all the way to five sets, and only once has he won in three.

Nadal, who is two wins away from a 21st Grand Slam title, is on offer at 1.59 to win through to a seventh Australian Open final, but much depends on how his body can recover from the rigours of Tuesday. The challenge for Berrettini, who is on offer at 2.66, will be battling the fatigue he has accumulated over the tournament to date.

It would be surprising if either man found a straightforward success in this encounter and so Over 38.5 games at 1.84 looks an attractive price.

Rafael Nadal is bidding to win his 21st Grand Slam in Melbourne

Barty looking formidable

The main event, at least from an Aussie perspective, comes in the form of Barty’s semi-final with a resurgent Keys.

There is no doubt that Barty has been the class act in Melbourne to date, dropping just 17 games in her five victories to date. Now she is seeking to overcome a third American in succession after defeating the dangerous Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula.

Keys’ poor recent form saw her overlooked at the start of the tournament, but the former WTA World No.7 clicked back to her best level thanks to a first-round win over Sofia Kenin, that restored her confidence. If her progress has not been quite as serene as Barty’s, it has, nonetheless, been impressive.

The pair have never met on outdoor hardcourt, but Barty did win their sole meeting on the indoor variety in 2019.

Thursday’s match, though, will provide a unique challenge in Barty’s career as she battles the pressure of home expectation to reach her first major final in Australia.

There have been no cracks in her armour to date, and although Keys is resurgent, Barty is looking classy and Under 20.5 games at 1.82 looks decent value.

Recommended bets

Nadal v Berrettino: Over 38.5 games @ 1.84
Barty v Keys: Under 20.5 games @ 1.82