Australian Open Tennis: Medvedev and Muguruza can go all the way

The build up to the 2022 Australian Open has been dominated by Novak Djokovic’s visa problems and his subsequent deportation, which has entirely transformed the betting in the Men’s Singles draw.

Djokovic, of course, would have started the tournament as a hot favourite to win his 21st Grand Slam title but his absence has dramatically altered the landscape of the competitions, with the No.1 seed replaced at the top of the draw by lucky loser Salvatore Caruso.

Medvedev deserved favourite

Daniil Medvedev, the No.2 seed, is now backed to win a second major, having gone all the way at the US Open after reaching the final in Melbourne last year only to be outclassed by the Serb. He is given a 35% chance of winning.

The Russian is bubbling with confidence at present and has a relatively favourable draw, though Nick Kyrgios in the second round could prove a difficult obstacle. He has a 0-2 record against the Aussie, but the home player is going into the tournament off the back of a Covid infection and is no longer among the Top 100.

If Medvedev should prove the strongest player in the bottom quarter of the draw, the third quarter promises to be close fought. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the leading seed in this area but with wildcard Andy Murray hitting form and No.11 seed Jannik Sinner apparently set for his breakthrough into the big time after going 3-0 at the ATP Cup, a dogfight is promised. Given a 2% chance of winning the tournament, Sinner is a player worth consideration given his early season form.

Zverev to benefit from Djokovic absence

The top half of the draw, meanwhile, has been blown open by Djokovic’s absence. Matteo Berrettini should be the greatest benefactor. He had been slated to meet the Serb in the fourth round and is now the highest seed in the top quarter. Having reached the final eight in the last three Grand Slams, including a run to the final of Wimbledon, the Italian is set for another big fortnight and is given a 3% chance of going all the way.

Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, is now the man chasing a record 21st major title. While Djokovic’s withdrawal could be of benefit to him, he looks overpriced given his 13% chance of winning a title he has only ever won once before.

It is, after all, a fiercely competitive area of the draw, including Olympic champion Alexander Zverev and Aslan Karatsev, who not only reached the semis last year but comes into this tournament off the back of winning the Sydney International, in which he was the leading seed.

Nadal boasts a 6-3 career record against Zverev, but the German has won the last couple between the pair on hard courts and now appears to be the player in the ascendancy.

For this reason, Zverev, who was a semi-finalist here in 2020, has gained the most from Djokovic’s withdrawal, despite issuing a public defence of the Serb.

The odds suggest it should come down to a showdown between him and Medvedev, but the Russian must be favoured given his apparently unwavering confidence.

Barty under pressure

In the Women’s Singles draw, all eyes, as ever, will be on Ashleigh Barty as she attempts to become the first home player to win at Melbourne Park since Chris O’Neil back in 1978. It has been a heavy burden for her to carry in the past and this year she faces a tricky draw. Having already won in Adelaide this season, she is given a 24% chance of winning the tournament.

Naomi Osaka, the defending champion, lies in wait as early as the fourth round, although the Japanese will have to negotiate a potentially tricky passage to get that far. That she is second favourite to lift the title at 11% simply underlines the quality in this quarter of the draw.

The third quarter possesses numerous dangerous sleepers, including the in-form Elena Rybakina, who is given a 3% chance of winning, 2019 semi-finalist Danielle Collins and shock US Open champion Emma Raducanu, who is reckoned to have a 2% chance of picking up successive majors.

The threat in this part of the draw, though, comes primarily from Anett Kontaveit and Garbine Muguruza, who finished 2021 in sparkling form. The Spaniard was a finalist in 2020 and has two majors to her name, and this experience should help her make a strong run in Melbourne. Offered at a 7% chance of winning, her odds look attractive.

In the bottom part of the draw, No.2 seed Aryna Sabalenka faces competition from Iga Swiatek, with the Belarusian having apparently overcome her major problems by reaching back-to-back semi-finals at Wimbledon and the US Open. However, she has never gone past the fourth round of the Australian Open and has started 2022 with a 0-2 record, which does not bode well for her chances, and explains her 3% chance of winning.

Recommended bets:

Men’s Singles: Daniil Medvedev @ 2.8
Women’s Singles: Garbine Muguruza @ 15.00