Australian Open Men’s Singles: Time to oppose Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev

If Roger Federer was the Lord of the Wimbledon manor and Rafael Nadal is the king of France, then Novak Djokovic very much has a grip on the Australian Open.

The Serbian will be bidding for a 10th title at Melbourne Park this year and he will rightly start a hot favourite. The rankings may not show it but Djokovic is still the best player in the world, and he has a point to prove after he was forced to miss last year’s tournament in a row over his COVID-19 vaccination status. The only question is whether there’s any value left in his price.

A warm-up success in Adelaide saw Novak Djokovic's odds move significantly from 2.48 to 1.94 and I’ve long been wary of backing odds-on shots in a Grand Slam where you need to win seven, best-of-five-sets matches.

It’s worth remembering that Djokovic had to face match point against Sebastian Korda in last week’s final, and it’s also not that long since he lost to Holger Rune in the Paris Masters title match.

Who are the alternatives?

Second favourite is Daniil Medvedev, beaten finalist in each of the last two years, but I’m strongly of the opinion that he is a lay this time around at 9.

The Russian has won only two minor titles since his 2021 US Open triumph and his record at the big events is even more worrying. After Australia last year, he only made the last 16 at the French and US Opens (he was banned from Wimbledon), while his five Masters 1000 tournaments produced just one semi-final. Just to add to his dire spell, he went 0-3 against the game’s elite in the season-ending ATP Finals.

Preference would be for defending champion Rafael Nadal, who looks a tad big at 16. The Spaniard has been remarkably consistent at this tournament over the years and has reached at least the quarter-final stage in 14 of his last 15 visits.

Novak Djokovic: the Serbian's price is too short following his victory in Adelaide

Nadal may have lost both matches at last week’s United Cup, but the signs were promising for a player who struggled with injury for much of 2022. A poor hard court record against Djokovic would be the main concern, but I think he’s very likely to shorten up and you should be able to trade out for a ‘bet to nothing’.

For the best outsider, I like Taylor Fritz. The American broke through at the top level in 2022 by winning his first Masters title while qualifying for the ATP Finals, where he lost to Djokovic in the last four. He continues to serve well, as he showed when helping USA win the United Cup, and the Greenset courts and Dunlop balls should produce ideal quick conditions.

Critics will point out his relatively poor Melbourne record, but the players he’s lost to have been Federer, Dominic Thiem, Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas – hardly a disaster. He looks ready to take the next step and should give you a run for your money at 29.

Australian Open Men’s Singles Predictions

Back Rafael Nadal @ 16
Back Taylor Fritz @ 29
Lay Daniil Medvedev @ 9