Australian Open men's semi-final tips: don't bet against Nadal

We’re down to the final four in the men’s singles event in Melbourne as Friday sees the two semi-finals take place to decide who will fight it out in Sunday’s Australian Open final. 

Tournament favourite Daniil Medvedev remains at the head of the betting at 2 as he faces Greek fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is 5.7 to lift the title. 

Rafael Nadal is 3.75 to win a record 21st Grand Slam title ahead of his semi-final clash with Italian seventh seed Matteo Berrettini - the 9.8 outsider of the four. 

Can Rafa reach record title? 

As soon as Novak Djokovic was denied entry to the tournament, something in 35-year-old Nadal sparked as he realised he could be the first man to break the tie between the two and Roger Federer on 20 Grand Slam titles. 

He’s now just two games away but will be grateful to have had two days off after coming through a brutal five-setter against Denis Shapovalov. Nadal blew a two-set lead and struggled with an upset stomach in some stifling conditions before getting the job done. 

The fourth-oldest semi-finalist in Australian Open history now faces Berrettini, who is 10 years his junior, but who also had to come through a five-set battle against Gael Monfils in the quarters. 

Berrettini is showing impressive consistency having made last year’s Wimbledon final and two other Grand Slam quarters - he’s now back in the semis and if he keeps knocking on the door then one of the big ones could fall his way. 

Nadal is 1.55 favourite, with Berrettini a live outsider at 2.8 given how he’s played not just at this tournament but over the last year or so.  

Both men went to five sets last round – Berrettini has gone the distance twice in the tournament – with the question here being how healthy Nadal is this time and if he has any problems after being pushed all the way in the quarters.  

As Nadal looks to have the eye of the tiger here, although Berrettini should be able to push him and possibly send it to five again, you can’t back against the Spaniard at this stage. Nadal to win and over 38.5 games at 3.05 looks the way ahead. Or back the match to go five sets at 3.5. 

Rafael Nadal is aiming for a record 21st Grand Slam title in Melbourne

Medvedev aiming for second Grand Slam 

Second seed Medvedev became tournament favourite as soon as Djokovic was ruled out, but he had to dig deep to stay on course after going two sets down against Felix Auger-Aliassime before coming back to win in five.

It was the first time Medvedev had been behind in the tournament, but the US Open champion showed the experience that winning Grand Slam events brings you in those situations.

He also made the final here last year so will fancy his chances as the 1.44 favourite against Tsitsipas, but the young Greek must have a great chance, as 3.2 outsider, of going one better than his semi-final here 12 months ago.

This looks like an ultra-competitive match on paper and over 40.5 games at 2 looks a decent bet with this game well-fancied to go the distance. Five sets here is priced up at 3.55.

Medvedev has the form in the book in Grand Slams though so we'll side with him to edge it. The Russian to win and over 39.5 totals games comes in at 2.98.

Recommended bets

Nadal to win and over 38.5 games at 3.05 

Medvedev to win & over 39.5 games @ 2.98

Medvedev v Tsitsipas to go five sets @ 3.55