Australian Open final: Can Rafa reach record high?

History awaits for Rafael Nadal on Sunday as he goes into the Australian Open final against Daniil Medvedev looking to win a record 21st Grand Slam title.

Currently tied with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on 20 each, Spaniard Nadal had the chance to jump ahead as soon as Serbian Djokovic was denied entry into the tournament through his controversial Covid case.

Nadal, 35, will appear in a 29th Grand Slam final just a few months after it looked like his career could be over due to yet another injury, but he arrived in Melbourne in decent shape and as soon as Djokovic was ruled out, something in the left-hander just sparked.

Medvedev's eyes also lit up once Djokovic was ruled out, as the world number two was then left as tournament favourite to win back-to-back Grand Slam titles after winning his maiden major at the US Open last September.

Medvedev is 1.58 favourite with Nadal the 2.7 betting outsider, but sure to be a huge crowd favourite as Melbourne wants to witness a huge slice of tennis history.

Angry Medvedev set to be the villain

It’s a second straight Australian Open final for Medvedev after losing out to Djokovic 12 months ago, and now another tennis legend will be on the other side of the net as he looks to bag a second major title. 

Despite being the tournament favourite, it’s been far from an easy ride for the Russian whose matches have been littered with strange and angry outbursts from him towards fans, opponents and umpires – nobody has been spared from the Medvedev temper! 

He hit out at fans who booed him during his win over home hope Nick Kyrgios, called a screen operator “stupid”, shouted at opponent Maxime Cressy that he was “boring” and “lucky” and then accused Stefanos Tsitsipas of being coached during their ill-tempered semi-final.

Medvedev also battled back from two sets down and saved match point to beat Felix Auger-Alliassime in an epic, so he's got some fight in him, but if he tries those mind games with a pro-Rafa crowd already on his back, he'll be in big trouble.

History-chasing Nadal has eye of the tiger

If Medvedev has the pressure of being favourtie on his shoulders, Nadal has the weight of history and the self-imposed pressure of wanting to be the first man of his magnificent generation to reach 21 majors. 

The door was open as soon as Djokovic was ruled out, and fair play to Nadal for dealing with the enormity of the situation and still making it through to the final. 

Nadal also had to come through a five-setter, but this time he lost the two-set lead as he struggled in the stifling conditions with a stomach upset. 

Nadal holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage, but Medvedev did win the last encounter, while the two have played out a Grand Slam final before – and it was a five-set classic at the 2019 US Open. 

Nadal emerged victorious, but only after Medvedev had hit back from two sets down to force a decider – it’s 3.4 for this match to also go the distance and the way the two have been playing you could not rule that out.   

Over 40.5 games in the match at 1.98 looks one of the safer plays for the final - that US Open final the two played in had 53!

An interesting side play could be to go long for the opening set and over 10.5 games at 2.4 as this has landed in three of Medvedev's matches this tournament, and two of their four head-to-heads. Nerves are always there are start of a final so it's a nice way into the contest.

We have to pick a winner, and we'll just take Nadal to edge it in a marathon, with that burning desire of his just getting him over the line - it should be great viewing.

Recommended bets

Back Nadal to win @ 2.7 

Back over 10.5 games in the opening set @ 2.4 

Back over 40.5 games in the match @ 1.98