Six Nations tips: in-form Scotland to take down Wales in Cardiff

Wales v Scotland

Saturday 12 February, 2.15pm 

The weight of history is against Scotland ahead of their trip to Cardiff, as Gregor Townsend’s side target their first win in the Welsh capital for 20 years.

But ending long-running hoodoos has become something of a speciality for this Scotland team, who won away at Twickenham and the Stade de France for the first time in 38 and 21 years respectively in the 2021 Six Nations. 

Week one results have added to a growing sense of optimism from Scottish fans that this could be their time to finally enjoy an away day in Wales.

A packed Murrayfield roared them to a nail-biting 20-17 victory over England as Scotland retained the Calcutta Cup and lived up to the pre-tournament hype with a performance built on outstanding, disciplined defending and sharp, clinical attacks.

In contrast, injury-plagued Wales had a nightmare start to their Six Nations title defence as they were dismantled 29-7 in Ireland, and they remain without a whole host of key players for week two. 

Josh Adams’ name was added to a list of absentees that already included the likes of Alun Wyn Jones, George North and Taulupe Faletau, after the winger hurt his calf.

Scotland are almost at full strength, with flanker Jamie Ritchie their only major absentee after being ruled out for the tournament with a hamstring injury picked up against England.

The impact of a packed Principality Stadium should never be underestimated, but form and fitness points to another historic away day for the Scots – if they can weather the pressure of expectation once more.

Tip: Scotland to win at 1.79

France v Ireland

Saturday 12 February, 4.45pm

The Stade de France will be at its raucous best for a game many have billed as a Grand Slam decider.

France and Ireland backed up impressive autumns, where they both defeated New Zealand, by clinching big victories in their Six Nations openers against Italy and Wales respectively. 

Ireland impressed as they ruthlessly dispatched Wales 29-7 in Dublin to take their winning streak to nine games, while France took some time to get going in a rain-soaked 37-10 win over Italy in Paris.

The clash between the two hot favourites for this year’s title is one of the hardest games to call in the entire Championship, but home advantage makes Les Bleus the favourites at 1.61, with an Ireland win priced at 2.86.

However, Ireland's late loss of injured captain Johnny Sexton could hit Andy Farrell's side hard.

The fly-half strained his hamstring in training on Wednesday and his calming presence, big-game nous and experience will be badly missed.

The fact he suffered the blow on Ireland’s final day of preparations before flying to Paris only heightens the significance of his absence.  

In his place, Joey Carbery will start a Six Nations game for the first time in his career. It’s a daunting task for the Munster man, who is up against the precocious talent of opposite number Romain Ntamack.

It’s sure to be tight, but this feels like France’s year, and the absence of Ireland’s main man could just tip the scales in their favour.

Tip: Asian Handicap France -4.5 at 1.89

Italy v England

Sunday 13 February, 3pm

After defeats for both sides in week one, Italy and England have points to prove in Rome.

England’s agonising loss in Edinburgh left them with a lot of regrets; individual errors were costly, they failed to turn possession into points, and they were ultimately punished by a more clinical side.

A trip to the Italian capital offers Eddie Jones’ side the ideal platform to issue a quick and commanding response against an Azzurri outfit whose losing run stretched to 33 games in Paris.

Italy coach Kieran Crowley’s Six Nations bow ended in another heavy defeat, but there were some positives to take from a performance where they took a first-half lead through teenage winger Tommaso Menoncello, who became the youngest Championship try scorer in 55 years.

The Stadio Olimpico crowd will be hoping to see Italy build on that display in their first home game, but it’s hard to see anything other than England bouncing back with yet another win against the Azzurri, who they have beaten in all 28 of their previous meetings.

Italy showed some improvements in their defensive discipline in France, but were ultimately undone by a superbly talented French side.

But on their home pitch, against an England team that struggled to execute in attack a week earlier, the Azzurri may well put up a closer fight than many expect.

Tip: Asian Handicap Italy +18.5 at 2.76