Who will be in the Truss (or Sunak) cabinet?

We will have a new Prime Minister next month and speculation is already building around who she (or he) will pick for the big cabinet posts.

Smarkets have prices available for each of Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary. It seems likely that the new PM will want to make changes - when Boris Johnson and Theresa May came to power in similar circumstances they both installed different faces in all three of the main offices of state.

May's First Cabinet (July 2016)

• Chancellor: Osborne replaced by Hammond
• Foreign Secretary: Hammond replaced by Johnson
• Home Secretary: May replaced by Rudd

Johnson's First Cabinet (July 2019)

• Chancellor: Hammond replaced by Javid
• Foreign Secretary: Hunt replaced by Raab
• Home Secretary: Javid replaced by Patel

Theresa May appointing Boris Johnson was something of a surprise - Johnson had been quoted at 12/1 to get that job on the eve of the announcement.

This time around there seems very little chance that Nadhim Zahawi will survive as Chancellor and we have a strong favourite in Kwasi Kwarteng, trading at a 60% chance. Kwarteng has been heavily tipped as Truss's preferred choice but there have been rumours that Thérèse Coffey will be getting one of the plum jobs. Some on the right of the party have been suggesting John Redwood should get the job which would be a startling comeback for someone who first made a cabinet appearance in 1993. The betting markets do not rate this as particularly likely. Steve Barclay is fancied as the most plausible pick for a Sunak administration.

Foreign Secretary is harder to call. Tom Tugendhat is favourite  - he's been chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee for five years and would be an easy pick for either Sunak or Truss. Other strong contenders here include current Defence Secretary Ben Wallace or one-time leadership favourite Penny Mordaunt, both of whom have endorsed Liz Truss in the run-off.

There has been less speculation about a new Home Secretary; perhaps there is a chance Priti Patel will stay on, which is why Smarkets' prices here are for who will occupy the position on 1st October (including Priti Patel). One consideration for the new PM will be achieving some gender balance at the top of the government so, if Kwarteng and Tugendhat get the nod for the Treasury and Foreign Office, there must be a good chance the Home Office will stay with a woman. Thérèse Coffey, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman all feature at the top of the betting.