US Presidential Election: could there be a big-priced winner in 2024?

There are two years to go until the 2024 US Presidential election, but what are the chances of a big betting upset?

The Smarkets market has settled on three main frontrunners: President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump and Florida governor Ron De Santis. The latest odds have them very close at the top of the market and imply around a 56% chance that the winner will come from those three. That still leaves a fairly big chunk of probability that it'll be someone else currently trading at a much bigger price. 

Biden himself was as big as 33/1 back in 2018 before he went on to win. Trump, of course, was available at 100/1 when he announced he was running, and some smart people managed to back Obama at 50/1 when he first came to the world's attention. So, there's plenty of recent history on your side if you want to take a chance on one of the outsiders - but who? Here are three that might be worth a look:

Glenn Youngkin (Republican) @ 100.0

Youngkin won election as governor of Virginia just under a year ago in something of a turn-up. He'd been behind in the polls for most of the race to establishment Democrat Terry McAuliffe, but managed to win in a state that has become fairly safe for the Democrats in presidential elections. His stock has risen ever since and speculation about a potential White House bid has already started.

Obviously, if you're backing anyone to win the GOP nomination then you have the very considerable obstacle of Donald Trump to worry about - Youngkin has said he would support Trump if he ran. Still, there's plenty of time for something to de-rail the former President, not least the increasing number of legal problems he is facing.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democrat) @ 100.0

AOC is probably not the sort of candidate I'd normally bet on given that her name recognition probably makes her odds shorter than they should be (note that Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is currently trading at a shorter price). You'd also have to assume that she is exactly the kind of candidate that the Republicans would love to face, although the same would have been said about Donald Trump and the Democrats.

Still, she's a powerful campaigner and could likely raise the money to mount a decent primary bid if she chose to. If Biden runs, it's not very likely that any big-name Democrats would oppose him. But maybe Ocasio-Cortez will be the exception; she's declined all invitations to confirm that she would definitely support him.

Tim Scott (Republican) @ 120.0

Currently the only black Republican member of the Senate, Scott seems have taken the trouble to visit Iowa quite a few times which is something prospective presidential candidates like to do, given that the state hosts the all important first round of the primaries.

CNN rates him as third in their power rankings of GOP possibles behind Trump and DeSantis. Scott also seems to be very popular with some very big Republican donors. If anything happened to Trump, the consensus is that he'd be one of the top tier runners.