Tory leadership down to five - the latest betting news.

Five runners left and this race is still up for grabs. The candidate leading the MPs' votes is in third place in the betting and no-one can be certain of making the final two yet.

Initial market reaction to the second round of voting was fairly calm; the result had been largely as the pre-poll betting had suggested, perhaps with the exception of Tugendhat's very poor performance. Mordaunt's chances ticked up a little from 54% to 57% as she narrowed the gap slightly between her and Sunak's vote numbers.

The real action came later on Thursday - Braverman, who had been eliminated, decided to back Liz Truss when many had guessed she might endorse Kemi Badenoch instead. That saw Truss's odds improve a little and they carried on improving as the early editions of the papers came in with various attacks on Penny Mordaunt. Even BBC's Newsnight carried a fairly lengthy discussion centring around Mordaunt's past pronouncements on trans rights issues. It's hard to know how much MPs and the membership will really care about that, but rival campaigns clearly think there is some mileage in portraying Mordaunt as too woke. Her chances of winning fell from 57% immediately after the round two result to just 47% the next morning.

The two debates over the weekend will be interesting. It's usually the shrewd angle to say that these events don't change anyone's mind, but in this case it's very possible that unexposed candidates like Mordaunt, Badenoch and Tugendhat could make a positive impact or ruin their chances. I don't know if any pollsters will be running a snap poll of Conservative party members, but I wouldn't mind betting that Kemi Badenoch might come out of them quite well.

As things stand, it's hard to see the ranking of the candidates change very much in round three on Monday. Tugendhat seems certain to go out in last place barring some blockbuster debate performances - the latest odds say he only has a 3% chance of surviving. Sunak's lead of 18 votes may shrink, but it would be a surprise if Mordaunt overtakes him. Truss needs to close up on the leaders; if she can get above 80 votes she might start to look like a favourite to qualify for the run-off.