Sunak set to go off as Tory leadership favourite

Three years after Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader, we're kicking off a new leadership election with Rishi Sunak looking likely to go off as favourite.

Sunak had been leading the market to succeed Johnson for over two years from his appointment as Chancellor in February 2020 through to this spring when his budgetary statement met with mixed reviews, his wife's tax affairs became a story and then he received a partygate fine from the Met. His implied chances hit a high of 36% in January 2022 only to collapse to just 5% by this May.

There have now been seven people who have been favourite be next Tory leader since Johnson won:

• Hunt
• Gove
• Sunak
• Truss
• Tugendhat
• Mordaunt
• Wallace

I hear there are people who managed to back Sunak at as big as 250/1 with certain betting outlets before he became Chancellor. Mordaunt and Truss have also been down as low as 2% (50/1) at the end of 2020. Whatever happens, there will be some big winners once we know the result in September.