Yousaf appears an unconvincing favourite in SNP leadership race

The next Scottish First Minister race has been much more exciting than anyone might have imagined, which has been reflected in a volatile market that has featured three favourites since Sunday.

Kate Forbes’ political disasterclass over the past 24 hours has been something to behold, and is partly testament to her inexperience in the world of politics. However, anyone familiar with how online media works - where outlets are competing for soundbites and easily-shareable clips and headlines with potential virality - could have seen this coming a mile off. 

I wrote last week that ‘Forbes would be relentlessly questioned by the media about her [conservative] views, which looks like a PR disaster waiting to happen’, and that’s exactly what has occurred. However, I did not expect that she would unravel this quickly or aggressively.

Let’s be clear: bar a complete recomposition of the SNP’s membership, Kate Forbes is not going to become First Minister of Scotland. Given Ash Regan’s similar social conservatism and anti-Net Zero position, Humza Yousaf should be the clear favourite by default. However, Yousaf is not a popular politician in Scotland (even among SNP voters), which explains why the market still only rates him a 52% chance. Only an unconvincing favourite could be a 50/50 chance in a ‘one-horse race’.

With the race going as it is, I took a speculative position on Angus Robertson last night and managed to get matched at 100. Though he ruled himself out yesterday morning, I wouldn’t completely reject the possibility that his phone will be blowing up in the next few days prior to the close of nominations. If he changes his mind and ends up standing, he will be the clear favourite. It’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened.

Are there more twists and turns to come in this race, or is Yousaf going to be crowned First Minister by default? We’ll soon find out.