The Italian election betting guide

Italy goes to the polls on Sunday 25 September with the odds suggesting we should expect a win for the radical right-wing Fratelli d'Italia.

It's only a few months since social democracy was having a pretty good run of it in global elections. The SPD came from behind to win the German elections, Justin Trudeau's Liberals held on to power in Canada and Emmanuel Macron comfortably saw off Marine Le Pen to win re-election in France. Things are starting to look up for the Democrats in the US and Keir Starmer is now odds-on (60%) to be the UK Prime Minister within a couple of years.

It was a very different story in Sweden's general election earlier this month; incumbent PM Magdalena Andersson was a fairly strong favourite to remain in office (Smarkets' odds made it around a 75% chance) but a right-wing block headed by the Sweden Democrats pulled off a narrow victory. If Smarkets' odds are any guide, we're looking at another big win for the right in Italy.

Meloni strong favourite for PM

The Italians have introduced a new electoral system - a mixture of 147 single-seat constituencies plus 245 seats allocated proportionately. The group of parties on the right appear to have the more efficient arrangement in place to maximise their constituency seats and, if the polls are right, will win enough deputies overall to be able to form a government.

The odds suggest there is around an 86% chance that Fratelli d'Italia will end up as the largest party. Their leader, Giorgia Meloni, would then be expected to become Italy's first female Prime Minister.

In truth, this election has not really captured the imagination of the betting public yet. Parliamentary elections outside of the UK typically don't attract a great deal of betting activity (presidential elections tend to do better) and the outcome of this one looks fairly predictable.