Saints set to end Miami's miraculous run

The Miami Dolphins have made a miraculous turnaround having won six in a row on the back of losing seven games straight, but can they continue that run against a New Orleans Saints team that's just shutout Tom Brady?

Miracle turnaround in Miami

Talk about a season of two halves! Miami started the season 1-7 and absolutely nobody saw them then going on a six-game winning streak to sit just a game off the play-offs with three weeks left of the season.

Now, it’s important to note that five of those wins have come against poor teams with no more than five wins to their names (including two games against the Jets) and with the Saints, Titans and Patriots left to play the Dolphins will find it tough to make the post-season.

Stranger things have happened though and a team with momentum is a dangerous one – as is one with a defense that has only allowed over 17 points in one of these last six games, and has kept opponents to 10 or less four times.

QB Tua Tagovailoa was poor against the Jets last week but running back Duke Johnson picked up the slack with 107 yards and two TDs – and with Myles Gaskin also picking up 54 yards then Miami’s run game looks in good health.

Saints defense on the march

The Saints are on the same 7-7 mark as Miami but are seen as more serious play-off contenders after they inflicted just the third ever shutout of Tom Brady’s career on the GOAT last week.

A 9-0 scoreline shows you that back-up QB Taysom Hill could not get much going, but keeping Brady’s champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers - the top scorers in the NFL - off the scoreboard is some effort from the Saints defense.

Tom Brady was shutout against the Saints last time out

And that all came with New Orleans as double-digit underdogs and with head coach Sean Payton missing due to Covid-19 – so with the Falcons and Panthers to follow after the Dolphins the Saints now have every chance of pinching that final NFC play-off spot.

Hill should keep his starting QB job but he needs do better throwing the ball than he has been doing. He did enough with his running, along with Alvin Kamara, against the Jets but there needs to be some sort of passing game if they’re to be a genuine contender.

Saints narrow favourites at home

New Orleans are just around a three-point favourite for the game, with the money line having them at 1.66 while the Dolphins come in at 2.46 to win straight up.

There’s not a lot between the sides and given that neither side is exactly what you’d call explosive on offense, while they’re both handy on defense, then you can see why bookies don’t even fancy them to combine for 40 points.

It’s 1.95 for 40 points or more to be scored and 1.82 for under, and it says something that despite that being such a meagre target you’re not overly confident that they can hit it.

The key to it all is Alvin Kamara as the stand-out player on the field - if the Saints can get him involved in the air as well as on the ground they’ll have enough to win another low-scoring street fight of a game.

It means under 3.5 touchdowns is in play at 2.32 but back over 3.5 field goals at 2.44 given the teams may be able to get in range but points will be at a premium.

Recommended bets

Saints to win -2.5pt on the handicap at 1.75

Over 3.5 field goals at 2.44

Under 3.5 touchdowns at 2.32