NFL Week 16 Tips

We're getting down to the business end of the season in the NFL now when play-off places are won and lost.

We've picked out four games on Sunday that all have huge post-season implications.

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

Match odds: Ravens 2.2 | Bengals 1.76

There’s no margin of error at all in the AFC North now and the winner here will have one hand on the divisional title with just two games left to play. They can hardly be split in the divisional title betting with the Bengals 2.3 and Ravens 2.38.

And speaking of fine margins, Baltimore have lost their last three games by a combined four points – with John Harbaugh twice going for the win on the last play instead of taking overtime.

It’s bold but it’s cost them a spot in the play-offs as things stand, so their entire season could rest on this game – where they go in as slight 2.5-point underdogs.

Harbaugh has another big call to make on whether to risk injured QB Lamar Jackson given how well back-up Tyler Huntley played against Green Bay, but a bigger issue is a secondary decimated by injury that has already been torched by Joe Burrow once this season (41-17).

Tip: Bengals to win -3.5pts on the handicap at 2.36

Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ New England Patriots (9-5)

Match odds: Bills 2.16 | Patriots 1.76

New England’s seven-game winning run ended as the Colts produced a Patriots-esque performance on Saturday, which sets this up beautifully as a decider for the AFC East.

Bill Belichick stifled Buffalo a couple of weeks ago when rookie QB Mac Jones threw it just three times – but they’re 0-4 when he’s thrown 39 times or more. So it’s clear you need to get ahead to beat the Pats.

The Bills still need to convince though, as they’ve lost all five games that have been settled by seven points or less.

Tip: Patriots to win -3.5pts on the handicap at 2.3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9)

Match odds: Bucs 1.2 | Panthers 4.9

Tom Brady was fuming after being shutout for the first time since 2006 in Tampa Bay’s 9-0 defeat to New Orleans on Sunday – but Carolina certainly aren’t New Orleans.

Brady looking for response after shutout

The Panthers have lost four in a row and finish the season with two games against the Bucs in their last three, and barring a mass of injuries or Covid tests then the Bucs should win them both.

They should have enough to cover a 9.5-point spread but they’re a good first quarter team so take them to grab an early lead in a bounce back game.

Tip: Buccaneers -3.0 first quarter handicap at 2.0

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)

Match odds: Steelers 3.65 | Chiefs 1.31

This should be a regulation home win but the Chiefs have been hit hard by Covid-19 – with star tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill testing positive. Given they’ve combined for 53% of KC’s touchdown catches this season that could be a huge blow.

Kicker Harrison Butker is also among a list of nine names and if some or all of those remain out then that’ll make life tough even for the hottest team in the NFL on a seven-game win streak.

Because the Steelers are still standing in the play-off race after edging out the Titans and, although they’ll probably lose as 3.65 underdogs, if you want to give me a 10-point cushion against a team with a Covid outbreak I’m taking it.

Tip: Steelers +10.5pts on the handicap at 1.83

Recommended bets:

Bengals to win -3.5pts on the handicap at 2.36

Patriots to win -3.5pts on the handicap at 2.3

Buccaneers -3.0 first quarter handicap at 2.0

Steelers +10.5pts on the handicap at 1.83