Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Big Ben set for Steelers send-off

As if games between these two divisional rivals needed more heat – veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has all-but confirmed this will be his last home game after 18 seasons. Emotions will be running very high at Heinz Field. 

And that’s a big plus point for Pittsburgh even as 3.5pt underdogs generally and priced at 2.6 straight up to get the victory everybody will be desperate for to send their talisman for two decades off in style. 

Can Big Ben keep emotions in check?

Even without the prospect of the two-time Super Bowl winner playing his last home game for the only NFL team he’s ever played for, Pittsburgh are still in the play-off hunt in a crowded AFC, although defeat for either them or Cleveland will likely end those post-season hopes. 

39-year-old Roethlisberger has had a mixed season but he did earn his 25th win over the Browns in the last meeting having owned Cleveland during his time as a Steeler.  

Roethlisberger also had a stinker though in last season’s crazy wildcard play-off defeat to Cleveland in the last meeting at Heinz Field – which may have been part of the reason he decided to carry on playing despite having thoughts of retirement. 

If he is to go out, he’d love to go out by not only avenging that loss but by moving the Steelers a step closer to one final play-off run, but as a renowned gunslinger he’ll need to play smart and try to keep his emotions in check. 

Pittsburgh will also need more than just Big Ben though, they’ll need rookie running back Najee Harris to keep the chains moving and their defence to limit Cleveland’s powerful rushing attack. 

Baker needs to shine for Browns

Cleveland have had their own issues at quarterback this season with Baker Mayfield being battered and beaten up all campaign – he's not played particularly well but it’s hard to judge given all the injuries he’s had. 

There is some talk he’s playing for his future so two wins and a play-off spot from what’s largely been a disappointing campaign for a team well-fancied at the start of the season would certainly help. 

Mayfield threw four interceptions as the Browns narrowly lost at Green Bay last time out so Cleveland will no doubt play if a bit safer and let running back Nick Chubb do the heavy lifting. 

The Browns only managed 97 yards when losing to Pittsburgh in October, but the Steelers have allowed a league-worst average of 178 yards rushing over the last eight games. 

Run game crucial - go big on field goals

Pittsburgh's TJ Watt and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett rank first and third in sacks this season so both QBs will be under constant pressure and needing to get the ball away quickly. 

That makes the run game, and stopping it, also crucial in what looks to be a low-scoring encounter in prospect. Under 4.5 touchdowns at 1.84 and under 40.5pts at 1.96 are the number you want to be backing. 

Despite last season’s play-off win, Cleveland have lost 17 regular season games in a row at Heinz Field. This season they’ve been poor in close games as well, losing six by six points or less, and that’s a red flag with a close one expected here. 

Giving the Steelers a 3.5pt start at 1.88 could then be a safe way to navigate this tricky game to call, even more so given the Roethlisberger situation is worth a couple of points thanks to the crowd being involved even more. 

One bet that does have plenty of confidence behind it is in field goals, which have been a staple for the Steelers home fans this season. Six of Pittsburgh’s last eight games have had four or more field goals in them. 

At Heinz Field, seven of their eight games this campaign have seen four field goals or more – half of those eight games have had five kicks or more! We’ll stick at four here though at 2.36 but as every point will count there may be more. 

Recommended bets 

Over 3.5 field goals at 2.36 

Under 40.5pts at 1.96 

Steelers +3.5pts on the handicap at 1.88