Local by-election preview 19 May - Ellel ward on Lancaster City Council

Only one local by-election happening this week, but it's quite a competitive one for a vacant seat in the Ellel ward on Lancaster City Council.

The Tories won both the seats in this ward at the 2019 local elections but one of their councillors has now been disqualified for not turning up to any council meetings for six months. The average vote share for the parties back then was:

• 42% Conservatives
• 32% Labour
• 19% Green
• 6% Liberal Democrats

The overall national opinion poll lead is fairly similar now to as it was in May 2019; around a 5% or so advantage to Labour, although the big difference is that both main parties were a lot lower three years ago as the Brexit Party were still polling in the high teens.

The opening odds at Smarkets indicate a 55% chance of a Labour gain for Lisa Corkerry who was one of her party's candidates in 2019.