Who will win the Man O'War Stakes at Belmont? Tom Collins tells you

Charlie Appleby was crowned 2021 International Trainer of the Year at the HWPA Awards in December - and there’s a good reason why. 

Not only did the Moulton Paddocks-based trainer dominate on the domestic front with star performers Adayar, Hurricane Lane and Native Trail among others, but he also farmed overseas races with an exceptionally talented string. 

Every trip to North America seemed to end well for Appleby and there is no doubt that he will have a larger number of runners Stateside this season as a result. Two of his US successes last term came courtesy of Yibir, who powered home from last to first to win the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont in September before matching that performance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar.

After a run at Meydan and a short-priced defeat at Newmarket, Yibir is back at Belmont and he’s likely to go off a warm order for the Grade 1 Man O’War Stakes at 9.46pm. Perhaps he enters this race with less to prove than his recent form figures suggest as he had plausible excuses for both defeats. 

He was denied by a neck in the Sheema Classic, which was a good run no matter how you look at it, but you can also mark up his performance given how far out of his ground Yibir found himself at the top of the straight. Posting the quickest closing fractions is all well and good, but if you’re too far back it’s extremely tough to erode the deficit.

On paper he should have made amends in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in April, but nothing went right. They went glacial fractions and Yibir raced keenly behind the front-runners, fresh after his spell in Dubai. He hit a flat spot once the leaders were sent for home and only plugged on at the one pace, but you can expect much better this time around.

Unbeaten in the US with a clear love for fast ground and with the possibility of a strong pace to chase, Yibir is by far the horse to beat in the Man O’War. His biggest danger, Gufo, is another deep closer that relies on his acceleration in this division.

The Christophe Clement trainee has proved prolific with eight wins from 15 starts, the majority of which have come on the east coast, but he finished ten lengths behind Yibir in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and might be forced to run down the Godolphin-owned favourite. As much as I respect Gufo’s talent, I can’t see that happening. He should be booked for second.

So High, who is drawn widest of six and was formerly trained by John Gosden, looks the speed but doesn’t have the class to feature. I would imagine he bottoms out at the top of the homestraight leaving Abaan to go for glory. Todd Pletcher’s runner gets 4lb from Yibir and Gufo as he’s yet to strike at Grade 1 or 2 level. His tactical speed is a massive bonus, but he’s yet to prove he has the ability to win a race of this nature.

That leaves Graham Motion’s runners, Easter and Highland Chief. The latter is well known on these shores after a promising career with Paul Cole, for whom he won the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot in 2020. I have him down as a soft ground type, so I’m not entirely sure that these conditions will see him to best effect.

Easter might beat his stablemate and take third. He was formerly trained in France and ran to a reasonable level, but he finished behind the aforementioned So High on his seasonal reappearance and US debut and will need to take a big step forward. Flavien Prat’s presence in the saddle is a big positive, though.

Recommended bet

Yibir @ 1.7