Tom's Tips: Our horse racing writer has three unmissable selections on Saturday

3.10 Chester, 5f handicap

Inside speed dominates over sprinting trips at Chester and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the horses drawn in stalls one, two and three finish in the first three positions in this handicap.

The opening market is headed by the George Boughey-trained Navello, who won the Lily Agnes over this course and distance as a two-year-old but has recorded just one victory from 13 subsequent starts. He hasn’t progressed from two to three and, although he’s still running to a mark around the 88 on a regular basis, that means he’s not exactly well-treated by the handicapper.

Neither is Gabriel The Devil, who won this race last year off a mark of 83 last year but has to carry 8lb more this time around. I fully expect him to improve for his comeback effort, but that might not be enough to retain his crown.

Preference is for the speedy Fast Response, who has the box draw in stall one. Karl Burke’s filly beat the boys on two occasions last year, including a victory over subsequent Group 1-winner El Bodegon at Windsor, and ended her season on a high with a fourth-placed finish in the Listed Rosebery Stakes at Ayr.

She’s been a touch inconsistent in four starts this term, but give underfoot is crucial to her chances and the forecast rain at Chester is sure to suit. Burke has booked course specialist Franny Norton to take the ride and any improvement on her recent Ayr performance might be good enough.

Selection: Fast Response @ 3.5

5.13 Newcastle, 1m2f handicap

The finale on Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate card looks extremely competitive, largely due to the fact that there isn’t much recent winning form on offer. Course winner Lasting Legacy and the unexposed Strawberri deserve a second look, but the value play is undoubtedly Spirit Dancer.

Oisin Orr’s mount last victory came in this race last year off a mark of 85, yet he had every reason to fall short of what was expected given how freely he raced behind a slow early tempo. Spirit Dancer pulled for his head for the first half of that race but somehow saved enough energy to produce a withering late run and win by a decisive three-and-a-quarter lengths at the line.

He doesn’t like quick ground, which is why we’ve only seen him four times since, and coming back to Newcastle for his primary target seems to have been the plan. He’s 7lb higher this time around, but his 101 RPR last year suggests he’s still well-treated and he performed much better than the finishing position hints at Epsom last time. 

Selection: Spirit Dancer @ 10

7.00 Doncaster, 6f handicap

Two horses interest me in this handicap: Equiano Springs and Hiya Maite. The former won a couple of races last year after relatively long absences and might be primed to run his best race fresh. However, trainer Tom Tate hasn’t had a winner for 151 days and that was just enough to put me off.

Preference is for Hiya Maite, one of two unexposed four-year-olds in the field. Nottingham trainer Roy Bowring isn’t known for his improving young horses, but he has his string in fine form (2-4, 50% this month) and this speedy son of Heeraat looks particularly well-handicapped off a mark of 76.

He made a really eyecatching start to his career when he ran home well for third after a ridiculously slow start at Southwell in December, and built on that when he filled the same berth on his turf debut at this track four months later. Only Lethal Nymph (now rated 87) and Rizg (102) beat him that day, and Hiya Maite pulled five lengths clear of Prodigious Blue, who won earlier this month.

Hiya Maite again flashed early speed on his most recent outing at Nottingham and was only worn down late by the short-priced Hebrides, who followed up at Newbury and is sure to be well-fancied for a Chester handicap this afternoon off a mark of 89. Hiya Maite gave that runner 3lb and only lost by a neck, so a similar performance should suffice.

Selection: Hiya Maite @ 4.5

Recommended bets

Fast Response (3.10 Chester) @ 3.5
Spirit Dancer (5.13 Newcastle) @ 10
Hiya Maite (7.00 Doncaster) @ 4.5