Tom Collins 2024 Royal Ascot Preview: Best bets plus trainers and jockeys to follow

We have reached peak summer (someone tell the weather that!) and Royal Ascot is upon us. Five brilliant days of top quality flat racing action await, featuring a whole heap of the world’s best equine and human talent. Are you excited yet?

In this preview article I will run through a few of the most asked questions, identify the jockeys and trainers who I believe will be successful this week, before ending with a few selections. If you want more tips for the action, make sure you follow me on Twitter (@Tomptin). 

Going and weather update

If I was asked to write this article a week or two ago, I would be saying how the long-range weather forecast ahead of Royal Ascot was looking pretty grim. Rain was predicted to last from Wednesday last week up until this Tuesday, with a scattering of showers throughout the meeting itself.

Fortunately, weather forecasts are often incorrect and that has proven to be the case once again. Last Friday aside, where it was pretty wintery and wet, dry weather has blessed Berkshire in recent days and it looks like that is set to continue with clear skies and warm temperatures anticipated until Saturday. 

The result of that is good to firm ground (GoingStick 8.0 on the straight course and 8.5 on the round course). In other words, perfect conditions for summer racing.

Where do you want to be drawn?

The draw is one of the hardest variables to predict. In recent years, the best part of the track on day one has become the worst part of the track on day two and vice versa. The current GoingStick reading suggests that near-side and centre is slightly quicker than far-side on the straight course, so perhaps give a slight edge to those drawn middle or high on Tuesday.

On the round course, working out the pace of the race is far more important than the draw. However, the lower the stall number then the higher likelihood that you won’t be forced wide on the turns. 

My advice would be to follow daily trends. Keep an eye out on where the fastest part of the course seems to be on the first straight course race on each day and use that knowledge to your advantage.

Trainers to follow

Quite simply, Aidan O’Brien is the trainer that I expect to dominate proceedings this week. I’m fully aware that isn’t an outlandish statement, but it is noteworthy just how many fantastic chances the Ballydoyle handler seems to have over the course of the next five days. O’Brien has tallied 85 Royal Ascot winners in his career - I expect that to be well into the 90s by Sunday.

Sir Michael Stoute is the only other trainer to have saddled 80+ victors at Royal Ascot, though his chances of adding considerable numbers to that total appear slim after the news of Passenger’s defection from the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Charlie Appleby and John and Thady Gosden will look to take advantage by adding winners of their own, while Karl Burke has numerous chances in the juvenile races.

My left-field mention in this category will go to Ralph Beckett, who has some nice chances in the handicaps with unexposed types.

Jockeys to follow

A lot of money has come for James Doyle to win the Royal Ascot 2024 leading rider award in the specials markets (5/2 from 6/1), obviously due to the vast number of new recruits purchased by his retainer, Wathnan Racing. There is no doubt that Doyler is one of the best jockeys in the weighing room, but I struggle to see how he will beat Ryan Moore to the title.

Moore, who sits just two successes behind Frankie Dettori on the all-time Royal Ascot winning rider list, has racked up the most strikes in each of the last three years and may have his best ever book of rides coming into this week. Kyprios is his obvious standout in the Ascot Gold Cup on Wednesday.

Look out for Tom Marquand, who rides this track as well as anyone, and Rossa Ryan, who could strike on some big-priced runners.

My best bets

I’m looking forward to playing numerous horses this week, whether that be two or three each-way bets in a specific handicaps or supposed ‘good things’ in Group races. 

For this column, I will briefly list the four horses I’m most looking forward to seeing at Royal Ascot 2024. The first of them is Henry Longfellow, who runs in a red-hot edition of the St James’s Palace Stakes on Tuesday. He has to beat both the Qipco 2,000 Guineas and Irish 2,000 Guineas winners, but he shaped like a potential star as a two-year-old and there were clear excuses in France last time. He’s overpriced.

Opera Singer should provide Aidan O’Brien with another winner in the Coronation Stakes on Friday providing the ground isn’t too quick, while I believe White Birch deserves favouritism in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on Thursday. 

As far as the two-year-old races go, I will take shots at big prices in most of them rather than siding with those in single figures. The only race that doesn’t apply to is Friday’s Albany, where I’m on Mountain Breeze antepost. I loved her debut run at Newmarket. Best of luck with all of your bets this week.