The Derby: Will Desert Crown justify favouritism? Tom Collins has two tips for Epsom's showpiece race
Tom Collins
3 June 2022
This is the pinnacle of British Flat racing. The middle-distance contest that every talented three-year-old colt is aimed at. The race that can make or break a reputation and simultaneously create an everlasting legacy. This is the Derby.
It would be remiss to not mention Aidan O’Brien first in this race preview. The Irish trainer, who won the Oaks with Tuesday less than 24 hours ago, regularly finds himself with the cream of the Derby crop courtesy of Coolmore’s powerful breeding operation and has plundered the Epsom Classic six times in the last ten years.
On three occasions those victories have come with horses who were considered to be O’Brien’s second or third string in the race, so it would be foolish to put any added importance on his jockey bookings.
Nevertheless, Stone Age, who will be ridden by Ryan Moore, is generally considered to be the leading light for Ballydoyle in this year’s renewal. The son of Galileo - one of many in the field - failed to break through in a tricky five-race juvenile campaign, but clearly improved from two to three and has recorded a couple of impressive all-the-way successes this term.
There is no denying that his recent Derby Trial win at Leopardstown was visually impressive, but it came on a day when it was almost impossible to make considerable progress from behind and, although he should be a confirmed stayer at this trip, he might have to revert to drop-in tactics with a number of his rivals also wanting to be on the front-end.
Changingoftheguard and Star Of India, two of Stone Age’s stablemates and also sons of the great Galileo, will almost certainly be up in the vanguard as the 17 runners fight for ideal early positions in this year’s Derby.
The pair come to Epsom on the back of impressive authoritative victories in the Chester Vase and Dee Stakes respectively at Chester’s May meeting and look sure to take the field along at a decent gallop. Don’t forget that Serpentine stole this race from the front at big odds just two years ago.
Other likely prominent racers include Royal Patronage, who was ridden aggressively in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas before being taken back in the Dante, and Nahanni, who represents last year’s winning combination of Charlie Appleby and Adam Kirby. The former would be a major player on his two-year-old form but is yet to set the world alight at this trip, while the latter has upwards of a stone to find on official ratings.
Appleby has two stronger contenders in Nations Pride, who was supplemented for this race, and Walk Of Stars, who finished second in the Lingfield Derby trial. There is no doubt that Nations Pride is an extremely classy operator, but he’s been drawn in between two speed horses and may be shuffled back early. I’m also not convinced that he wants this trip (pedigree suggests 1m2f might be his limit) and this is a huge step up in class from the Newmarket Stakes.
Walk Of Stars is more interesting, especially as he’s available at a much tastier price. The jury is out about whether he’s professional and mature enough to win a Derby, but this son of Dubawi possesses the right running style and is almost guaranteed to stay the trip. He didn’t handle Lingfield overly well last time out (hung off the bend and towards the line), but the pace setup wasn’t suitable and Adayar was beaten in that race last year. Give him another chance with that experience under his belt.
Ballysax winner Piz Badille, the mount of Frankie Dettori who gave Emily Upjohn an admirable ride after her stumbling start yesterday, will also look to find a prominent position just behind the leaders. This Donnacha O’Brien-trained colt has plenty of upside after just three outings and impressed with his tenacity at Leopardstown in April. However, that form took a big hit when Buckaroo finished down the field in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and I have trip and track concerns.
The likes of Westover, West Wind Blows, Sonny Liston, Masekela, Glory Daze, Grand Alliance, Hoo Yo Mal and El Habeeb haven’t yet proven they possess the ability to win a race of this nature, so that leaves Desert Crown. Leave the best until last, they always say.
Sir Michael Stoute’s colt really impressed me when he won a Nottingham maiden in the autumn in a time two seconds quicker than the aforementioned Walk Of Stars plundered division two of the split event. Desert Crown was always expected to take a huge step forward from two to three and his Dante success got the juices flowing. It felt like we were witnessing the birth of a new flagbearer at York.
He remains relatively inexperienced, will have to pass horses to win and needs luck in running on a tricky track. But Desert Crown, who has already run to a mark of 120 on just his second start, has the talent to win the Derby. His drawn in stall 12 is perfect - eight of the last nine winners have jumped from a middle stall (between seven and 14) - and further progress makes him tough to hold.
Recommended bets
Tom Collins
3 June 2022
