'She is undoubtedly the value each-way play' - Tom Collins notes his Oaks tip

It usually pays to focus on fillies trained by Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden in the Oaks. Nine of the last ten winners of this Classic have hailed from the aforementioned yards, with O’Brien holding a six-three edge over his Newmarket-based counterpart.

Both legendary handlers are strongly represented in this year’s edition and, although O’Brien has four entries compared to John and Thady Gosden’s two, it’s the latter who has a complete stranglehold of the market, largely due to the participation of Emily Upjohn.

Unbeaten in three career starts, Emily Upjohn has already earned comparisons to champion racemares Taghrooda and Enable and boasts a rapidly-progressive profile that many look for in a potential Epsom winner. 

Purchased for just 60,000gns, the daughter of Sea The Stars currently boasts an official rating of 110 (highest in the field) and is open to further improvement over this mile-and-a-half distance. She will bid to become the eighth Musidora winner to triumph in the Oaks and, based on her authoritative York performance, she rightly sits at the head of the market. 

There is no doubt that she is the most likely winner of this race judged on what we’ve seen so far this season, but there’s very little juice in her current odds (2.24) and she still needs to find around 5lb to hit the average rating required for an Oaks winner. She has not yet proved that she is as dominant as her price suggests and she can be keen in her races - expended energy in a Group 1 usually results in failure.

Gosden’s second-string, Nashwa, boasts a slightly different profile and has notable question marks about the trip and track. This imposing daughter of Frankel looks the perfect type for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot in two weeks’ time, but connections have opted to re-route her here and she has to be respected. Her turn of foot is impressive, but it’s not enough to make me want to back her at 5.9. I’d be surprised if she beat Emily Upjohn.

Aidan O’Brien’s quartet is headed by Galileo filly Tuesday, who has already been tested at Group 1 level. Third in the Qipco 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket before going one better behind Homeless Songs in the Irish equivalent, Tuesday now takes a marked step up in trip and should improve accordingly. 

Three Classics in just over a month is a rather full-on schedule and, although she obviously takes her races well, it’s extremely difficult to consistently perform at a high level without blips. I’m also not entirely sure that she has the class to beat the likes of Emily Upjohn, but the fact that Ryan Moore has chosen to ride her can only be seen as a positive.

Tuesday finished one place ahead of stablemate Concert Hall in the Irish 1,000 Guineas 12 days ago, but confirmation of that form is far from guaranteed. Concert Hall made her challenge from way off the pace and did plenty of running to get to within half-a-length of Tuesday, who was always in the firing line. Her pedigree (by Dubawi out of 2012 Oaks winner Was) strongly suggests that she will improve over this distance and she might be the best of the O’Brien team.

Thoughts Of July, who beat recent Group 1 winner Above The Curve in the Cheshire Oaks, will need to take a relatively big step forward on figures, while The Algarve looks likely to contribute to the early pace. We’ve seen shock results in the Oaks, but I highly doubt that the latter will contend the finish.

Making a strong case for two of Aidan O’Brien’s runners isn’t too difficult, but it might be son Joseph who trains the best of the Irish contingent in Tranquil Lady. A daughter of 2014 Derby winner Australia out of US mare Repose, the dam of three-time Group 1-winner State Of Rest, Tranquil Lady is bred to hit lofty heights and has already indicated that remains a distinct possibility after just two runs this term.

She was cleverly placed in a relatively quiet juvenile campaign last year and returned with an encouraging fourth in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan two months ago. That form has been boosted by both the winner, who subsequently finished third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, and third, who hacked up in Listed company on her next start.

Tranquil Lady destroyed an inferior field in the Group 3 Blue Wind on her only outing since and shaped as if the step up to this trip would see her in even better light. With Tom Marquand booked, a perfect draw in gate three and only 3lb to find on official ratings, it astounds me that Tranquil Lady is as big as 19.5 in the market. She is undoubtedly the value each-way play in this year’s Oaks.

Recommended bets

Tranquil Lady @ 19.5