Saturday’s Horse Racing Trades: Harry too well-handicapped to ignore in Lanzarote

Tom Collins

13 January 2023

Small fields are the order of the day on Saturday with 23 of the 42 scheduled races in Great Britain and Ireland set to feature eight or fewer runners. Following a spate of bad weather and with the big spring festivals looming up large, trainers are sure to act conservatively over the next couple of weeks.

However, the anomaly is the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2.40 Kempton) as it has drawn a maximum field of 20 runners. This race hasn’t proved to be the easiest for punters in the last decade with just two favourites - one of those was joint-fav - entering the winner’s enclosure. That trend may continue given we’re looking at roughly 5-1 the field in a wide-open renewal.

There’s a fantastic mix of well-handicapped horses, course regulars and class-droppers in this year’s edition, but it’s the former group that I’m keen to focus on.

Market leaders Green Glory and Outlaw Peter fit under that bracket and both are major players, especially the former as he hacked up last time at Leopardstown and represents super shrewd connections. Only a 16lb hike in the weights put me off him, but he could remain well-handicapped.

Paul Nicholls: trainer of market leader Outlaw Peter

My preference is for two horses with high ceilings at tasty prices. The first is the Harry Fry-trained Dubrovnik Harry, who has only run twice in handicap company. This son of champion flat stayer Yeats hinted at a high level of ability in novice hurdles before finishing a highly creditable third in the EBF Final at Sandown last April.

Dubrovnik Harry lined up that day off a mark of 125 and, although he was beaten four-and-a-half lengths by eventual winner Complete Unknown, he was worth marking up following several crucial jumping errors. Not only did he proved that he was well-treated, but he was also evidently well-suited by a big-field contest on testing ground.

Fry was then keen to go over fences at Exeter on his seasonal reappearance, but his performance was littered with mistakes and he did extremely well to finish as close as third at the line. He now finds himself back over the smaller obstacles (no surprise there!) off an attractive mark of 128 - he’s worth a few quid.

My other selection is Scarface, who looks massively overpriced. Colin and Joe Tizzard pitched this six-year-old in at the deep end last year (he ran in the Ballymore at the festival) without success, but they knew that he was a longer-term project who needed to mature with racing.

He is starting to reward connections already with two cosy successes this term and, although he faced little of note on his return at Plumpton and appeared to scrape home in a three-runner race at Ascot, neither of those races panned out well for this future three-miler.

Scarface will be much better suited to a big-field handicap - he won’t be forced to lead, for a start! - and his mark of 126 catches my eye. Maybe this race comes too early in his career, but he could easily develop into a 140 performer and that’s good enough for me.

All-weather excitement

The rest of Kempton’s jumps card looks pretty uncompetitive, so I have ventured elsewhere to find some likely winners at juicy prices.

It wouldn’t be a Saturday column without an all-weather selection, and this week’s pick is slightly more exciting than normal as I really fancy Silky Wilkie in the 6f handicap (1.45) at Lingfield.

Karl Burke’s four-year-old ran over the minimum trip (five furlongs) on 18 consecutive occasions following his promising debut second over half a furlong further. Silky Wilkie was by no means unsuited by the sprint distance - he won four times and finished second on a further eight occasions - but it was the step up to this trip last time out that caught my attention.

Silky Wilkie missed the break and was forced three-wide throughout that handicap, yet he fairly flew under 7lb claimer Sam Feilden in the closing stages to narrowly miss out in a photo finish. The eventual winner, Tyger Bay, will reoppose here over slightly worse terms and I’m expecting a form reversal.

Stout stayer ready to strike

Finally, I will be placing a small bet on the Phil Kirby-trained Heritier De Sivola in the 3m handicap hurdle (1.57) at Wetherby. This horse is the definition of a stout stayer - a plodder, if you will - and he was clearly inconvenienced by inadequate trips prior to his impressive Kelso victory on his penultimate outing.

Kirby stepped him up to this distance last time out and he was still outpaced at a crucial stage as the leaders quickened. Nevertheless, Heritier De Sivola galloped on gamely to the line and was eroding the margin between himself and the protagonists with every stride.

This contest looks weaker, even with the four-timer-seeking Hoganville in the field, and an aggressive front-running ride would make him hard to beat, especially if further rain falls at the West Yorkshire venue.