Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Can Tom Collins match last weekend’s two winners?

Tom Collins

17 May 2024

Hawk Wing (2003), Canford Cliffs (2011), Frankel (2012) and Baaeed (2022) are just a handful of the fantastic horses who have won the Lockinge Stakes since it was given Group 1 status almost 30 years ago.

The Lockinge, one of Newbury’s showpiece events, is the first top-level mile contest for older horses in the flat racing calendar and simultaneously provides future Queen Anne Stakes contenders with the perfect preparation (five of the last 12 winners have plundered this prize en route to Royal Ascot glory).

French challenger Big Rock and prolific mare Inspiral have been pencilled in as the joint-market leaders for Saturday’s contest, with Smarkets traders seemingly unable to split them at 2/1. The former wowed onlookers with a six-length romp in the Group 1 QEII at Ascot in October and makes his first start since, this time for new trainer Maurizio Guarnieri.

I’ll admit that I don’t know much about Guarnieri, but I do know that settling into a new routine can take a while and that factor, as well as the drying ground, may play against his chance. In contrast, the latter will definitely be a positive for Inspiral, who put up her best performance last year in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf under Frankie Dettori.

That victory took her record to nine wins from 13 starts, but she’s certainly not unbeatable and often seems to perform at her best later in the season. She may also be taken slightly off her feet in the early stages if Big Rock adopts his normal aggressive tactics, so her fitness could be tested. This isn’t a race I want to bet in but I will be keeping a close eye on Charyn, who is undoubtedly the solid option after his recent Sandown success.

My three wagers will come on the undercard, and I’m most hopeful about Ejaabiyah’s chance in the closing Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Stakes (5.15 Newbury). Roger Varian has started the season in great form with his three-year-olds and he may add another win to the tally.

Ejaabiyah boasts a fantastic pedigree - she’s by Frankel out of an Australian mare called Estijaab, who won the Golden Slipper as a two-year-old. There’s talent, precocity, and a perfect blend of speed and stamina in the bloodline.

Impeccable breeding doesn’t always translate to the track, but Ejaabiyah impressed me on her debut at Kempton last November when she routed her opposition by six lengths after using the cutaway to spurt clear. That route doesn’t always result in success - it can ride deeper up the inside - so I was surprised how quickly she put distance between herself and eventual runner-up Sattwaa, who is now rated 92 after placing in Listed company.

Ejaabiyah now returns to the track after a break and makes her turf debut, two minor question marks, but her ceiling is sky high and I’m hopeful that she will catapult her name up the ante post betting for either the Oaks or Coronation Stakes with victory on Saturday.

From one top Newmarket-based trainer to another as William Haggas has a great chance of landing the mile 0-105 handicap (4.45) with Godwinson. He’s favourite, but the 3.8 on offer seems pretty fair to me.

This son of Saxon Warrior caught the eye in a couple of novice events last year before being put away for the autumn/winter with an initial handicap mark of 88. That suggested to me that a big prize was going to be targeted and it was no surprise to see him rock up in the Spring Mile on his comeback.

I thought inexperience might catch him out that day, but he ran better than I anticipated. He scythed through the pack and launched a big challenge to eventual winner Metal Merchant, just falling short after using a lot of his petrol to get on terms.

The pair reoppose here with Godwinson 1lb better off despite going up 4lb himself. With more experience under the belt and his fitness now peaking, I expect him to reverse the form on a track that he clearly handles well.

Finally, I want to take a double-figure price on Poniros in the London Gold Cup (3.00), a race that often produces countless subsequent winners while being won by a smart middle-distance three-year-old.

Many people may opt for the race-fit Chantilly or likely improver King’s Gambit and, while I understand both have clear upside, I’m not rushing to take relatively short odds in a competitive race like this.

Poniros has been slightly overlooked despite pushing Derby entrant Harper’s Ferry all the way on his seasonal reappearance at Windsor. The vet also reported after the race that Poniros was struck into, which gave more credit to his performance.

He ran to a fair level at two, including beating the now 91-rated Salamanca on debut at Nottingham, and good ground should help his chance. With a run under his belt and a fairly lenient mark of 88, there are far worse each-way bets in one of the best races of the day.