Saturday preview: Tom Collins provides his tips on Ascot Chase day

Storm Eunice's powerful winds resulted in a truncated schedule on Friday and is set to continue, albeit to a lesser degree, through the weekend. The good news is that Ascot Chase day has already been given the go-ahead and tipster Tom Collins has provided a race-by-race guide for the exciting card.

1.15 Ascot, 2m3f novices’ hurdle

The unbeaten Skytastic, who represents the in-form Sam Thomas and Charlie Deutsch, could blow this field apart if he continues his sharp progression. However, the market hasn’t overlooked him and he will need to improve to beat proven quantities Unanswered Prayers, Ballyblack and Hecouldbetheone, who is the selection.

Gary Moore’s novice hurdler has to give weight away to all of his rivals except for the aforementioned Unanswered Prayers as a result of winning two hurdles, but his experience should stand him in good stead in a contest of this nature and he remains completely unexposed over this trip. 

His only defeat under rules came when second to Walking On Air, who is currently available at x.x for the Ballymore at next month’s Cheltenham Festival. Hecouldbetheone doesn’t meet a horse of his calibre here.

Selection: Hecouldbetheone @ 6.4

1.50 Ascot, 2m7½f Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase

Favourites have a pretty miserable record in the Reynoldstown since 2012 with just the Paul Nicholls-trained Rocky Creek (2013) and Black Corton (2018) justifying their lofty market position. This year’s edition doesn’t feature a standout player, but likely jolly Does He Know appears vulnerable given all his best form has come at left-handed tracks.

The enigmatic Corach Rambler has more than enough ability to win this but is a heart-in-mouth ride, while Annual Invictus has stamina doubts over this trip. J’Ai Froid, who won on this card last year, was the last off my shortlist, but the pick is the attractively-priced Fern Hill.

Highly regarded, as proven by his participation in last year’s Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle, Fern Hill has shaped nicely in behind talented sorts Come On Teddy and Grumpy Charley on his two runs this season and appears to be crying out for an increased stamina test. Likely to be forwardly-placed, Fern Hill can exploit his rivals’ weaknesses.

Selection: Fern Hill @ 8.2

2.25 Ascot, 2m7½f Swinley Chase

The mean rating recorded by winners in this race over the last ten years is 154, a figure that is brought down by Captain Chaos’ 139 effort to win last season. Generally, a performance in the 160s is required and very few are capable of doing that in this field.

Fiddlerontheroof, who has run to that mark on two of his last four starts, is the obvious starting point. The Ladbrokes Trophy runner-up may justify favouritism, but he’s giving plenty of weight away and probably won’t get the strong gallop that he needs to show his best.

The only other horse capable of running to the required level is Caribean Boy, who beat Fiddlerontheroof off level weights in the Berkshire Chase in 2020 and receives 6lb here. James Bowen, who took his record to 2-2 on Caribean Boy last time at Kempton, seemed to sort his jumping out and the hat-trick beckons.

Selection: Caribean Boy @ 9.2

3.00 Ascot, 2m3f handicap hurdle

It’s not difficult to make a strong case for Good Risk At All being the best handicapped hurdler in the country right now. The six-year-old gelding won two Listed bumpers last year, which included a hot Newbury event in which he ran to a mark of 135. 

Inaccurate jumping cost him as he was overturned at prohibitive odds on his hurdling debut at Chepstow in November, but he sharpened up next time out when a gallant runner-up to Jonbon, who is rated 145 and largely considered to be one of the best novice hurdlers this season.

Inexperience and a sharp 2m led to another second-placed finish at Warwick last time out, but he’s only been nudged up 3lb for that display and will relish this notable step up in trip. Although Good Risk At All will be a short price in a relatively competitive event, it’s hard to take him on.

Selection: Good Risk At All @ 2.96

3.38 Ascot, 2m5f Ascot Chase

Joseph O’Brien has taken an interesting approach with Fakir D’Oudairies, who clearly can’t compete against the likes of Allaho in Ireland and has therefore been shipped to Britain to face weaker opposition. 

Although his form stacks up nicely in the context of this race, Fakir D’Oudairies’ jumping will be put to the test around Ascot and he only has 2lb in hand on official ratings. There’s no doubt that he should be sent off favourite, but course form is so crucial here and Dashel Drasher has to be the value play in an exciting heat.

The gutsy and game chaser fended off the subsequently ill-fated Master Tommytucker in this race last year despite plenty going wrong in the run, and has shown himself in great light over hurdles earlier this campaign. The slight drop in trip should suit after being chinned at Lingfield last time out.

Selection: Dashel Drasher @ 7.4

4.10 Ascot, 2m7½f handicap hurdle

Unexposed six-year-olds Grosvenor Court, Guerlain De Vaux and Atacan all warrant respect for leading connections, but the horse with the sharpest upward trajectory might be the Richard Newland-trained Art Of Diplomacy.

As he so often does, Newland has found dramatic improvement from this former Mick Easterby-trained hurdler and, although he’s shot up the weights (18lb) in three runs this season, he still seems to have untouched potential. 

Cillin Leonard’s 5lb claim might be the deciding factor between victory and defeat as he takes a slight drop in trip.

Selection: Art Of Diplomacy @ 7

4.45 Ascot, 1m7½f bumper

There is very little form on offer in the closing bumper and recent Wetherby winner Roc Of Dundee may be sent off favourite because we know a little more about her. Peter Kavanagh’s 7lb claim is a gift, but the form of his last-time-out victory doesn’t look overly strong.

Missed Vacation could take a big step forward from her debut effort, in which she hung badly left under pressure, but slight preference goes to Kraqueline, who shaped nicely on her debut at Warwick in November and has been freshened up since. Expect her to appear stronger and more professional prior to the start for trainer Kerry Lee, who is 1-4 in bumpers this year.

Selection: Kraqueline

Recommended bets:

Hecouldbetheone @ 6.4
Fern Hill @ 8.2
Caribean Boy @ 9.2
Good Risk At All @ 2.96
Dashel Drasher @ 7.4
Art Of Diplomacy @ 7
Kraqueline