Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has three Haydock selections
Tom Collins
18 November 2022
This weekend’s jumps racing is more about quality rather than quantity as three superstars appear to have scared off their opposition in their respective Graded races.
Perhaps the most exciting spectacle is the return of Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Constitution Hill, who will line up in the Ascot Hurdle (2.40) after the track received a welcome downpour on Thursday. The only downside is that he is currently available at 2/7.
There is little doubt that an on-song Constitution Hill would demolish Brewin’upastorm (rated 15lb inferior) and Goshen, who returns to hurdling after jumping without fluency on chase debut. Although it’s great to see our leading Champion Hurdle candidate back on track, this race is likely to be little more than a paid workout. Would you want to bet in it? I doubt the answer is yes.
The Ascot Hurdle will be run 35 minutes after L’Homme Presse’s seasonal reappearance in the 1965 Chase (2.05) - a race that boasts Al Ferof (2013/2014), Vautour (2015), Politologue (2018) and Cyrname (2019) on its roll of honour.
L’Homme Presse has a great record fresh and won two Grade 1s - the Scilly Isles and Brown Advisory - as part of a fantastic six-year-old campaign last season. But, much like Constitution Hill, he will likely go off an extremely short price as rivals Hitman (second preference) and Do Your Job (runs on Friday) have other entries. Another watching brief.
Perhaps the exception is the Betfair Chase (3.00 Haydock), where A Plus Tard is currently available at 8/13 to retain his crown after a 22-length romp on his comeback effort in this race last year. Henry De Bromhead’s eight-year-old is one of the best staying chasers in training, but has never won back-to-back races in his career - a stat that I’m confident will change on Saturday.
A Plus Tard has course form, handles soft ground as well as anything and boasts form figures of ‘221’ after layoffs of 150 days or more, so clearly goes well fresh. More importantly, he is 16lb better than nearest rival Protektorat (can you believe one firm went 6-4 earlier this week about Dan Skelton’s runner? Ludicrous), while Bristol De Mai (age), Eldorado Allen (class) and Frodon (age and class) have tough tasks.
Putting up an odds-on shot isn’t really my bag - I generally limit myself to evens or above if I like a favourite - but the price on A Plus Tard isn’t a reflection of his likely dominance. I made him a 4/9 chance to win at Haydock, so I’ll be snapping up some of the bigger prices when this column is published!
Away from the Graded action, the feature of the day is the Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2.25 Haydock). Run For Oscar, who I tipped to win the Cesarewitch last month, is an interesting runner for Charles Byrnes and rightly tops the market, but I always had him down as a good ground horse and the weather has not been kind to him.
Might I has promised plenty but generally failed to deliver in his career. While, it’s also worth noting that eight of the last ten winners of this race came into it with a prep run, where they finished in the first four. Might I, along with Complete Unknown and Get A Tonic, will look to defy that trend.
I prefer the claims of Good Risk At All, who finished just six lengths behind Jonbon in a maiden hurdle last year before hacking up in a Ascot handicap hurdle off a mark of 127. Trainer Sam Thomas pitched him in the deep end at the Aintree Grand National festival after that, and he didn’t disgrace himself by finishing sixth.
Good Risk At All, who adores soft ground, hacked up at Carlisle on his seasonal reappearance and, although there are question marks about the trip, I’m quietly confident that he will stay given his running style. He needs a fast pace, which he will get here, and a mark of 143 remains lenient.
My only other bet on Saturday comes earlier on the Haydock card in the form of Findthetime, who will bid to provide Nicky Richards with another winner in the 2m3f handicap hurdle (1.15).
There has been plenty of money around for Dan Skelton’s French import L’Eau Du Sud, who won a Listed race on his last outing. Although he will like the deep ground, it’s hard to assess whether a mark of 132 is fair or harsh given his French exploits and there’s just no juice in his price. He has to be opposed for that reason, and Findthetime is a worthy opponent.
This horse looked on a sharp upward curve last year and followed novice hurdle victories at Catterick and Sedgefield with a handicap success at Wetherby.
Findthetime returned after a summer absence with a highly creditable runner-up effort behind the well-treated Rocky Man, and the pair drew nine lengths clear of the remainder. Ashington, who finished third that day, ran a good race to take fifth in a deeper handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last weekend and boosted the form.
With improvement expected on his second run of the season, conditions to suit and an attractive mark, Findthetime rates a confident selection to kickstart Saturday’s punting.
Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips
Findthetime (1.15 Haydock) @ 4.2
Good Risk At All (2.25 Haydock) @ 6.6
A Plus Tard (3.00 Haydock) @ 1.66
Tom Collins
18 November 2022