Royal Ascot Tips: Tom Collins opts for unexposed trio on Thursday

2.30 Royal Ascot, 5f Norfolk Stakes

Form analysts will want to get stuck into this year’s Norfolk as current market leader The Antarctic sits at the top of the betting largely due to his reputation and pedigree, rather than what he has achieved on the track.

A full-brother to champion sprinter Battaash who represents the powerful team at Ballydoyle, The Antarctic is always going to attract attention. However, he doesn’t warrant extremely skinny 3.2 quotes given he remains unfurnished and has only won a couple of small-field conditions races in Ireland.

Of course, you can only beat what is put in front of you and trainer Aidan O’Brien wouldn’t have gone down this route if he didn’t think The Antarctic had talent. But he’s been hard-pressed to beat the likes of Wodao and Mehmar, both of whom competed in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday and will be rated around 90. He needs to improve a great deal to maintain his unbeaten streak and it’s wise to look elsewhere from a value perspective.

Brave Nation, who is trained by 2020 race winner Michael Bell, impressed me on his debut at Doncaster and isn’t passed over lightly. His inexperience is a slight concern but I’ll probably have a saver on him, with the main selection being Walbank. 

Course form at Ascot is extremely important, especially when it’s rare in two-year-old races, and Walbank has that box ticked thanks to a highly creditable debut effort when he finished second behind a smart rival. He readily made amends at a short price next time and clearly sets the standard with a Racing Post Rating of 102.

He only needs to improve around 3lb to win an average Norfolk, which seems very plausible, and the fact that Rossa Ryan takes over in the saddle further boosts his claims.

Selection: Walbank @ 3.2

3.05 Royal Ascot, 1m4f King George V Stakes

The King George V Stakes is one of the most intriguing races of the week. Very few names in the roll of honour over the last decade ever reached the top level - 2020 hero Hukum is the exception after landing the Group 1 Coronation Cup earlier this month - but plenty of good horses have been beaten here, not least subsequent Melbourne Cup victor Cross Counter, who finished fourth in 2018, and Subjectivist, who only took third two years ago before winning the Ascot Gold Cup 12 months later.

This year’s field looks stacked. The top eight horses in the market all appear well handicapped as they continue on their stiff upward trajectories, which is why the betting is so wide open. Israr, a son of brilliant racemare Taghrooda, warrants a second look after his gutsy Newbury victory, while the hat-trick-seeking Secret State and Mandobi shouldn’t be overlooked for trainers Charlie Appleby and William Haggas respectively.

But it’s Haggas’ other runner, Post Impressionist, that might be the best-treated in this field. This gelding has stamina on both sides of his pedigree and wouldn’t have been ideally suited by an inadequate mile on his first two starts. Despite that, he made eyecatching inroads on debut to finish second behind next-time-out winner Barley, before beating up inferior rivals at Ayr. 

Post Impressionist was heavily punted to follow up under a penalty at Newcastle on his first try over 1m2f but came up short behind Eldar Eldarov, who was sent off favourite for the Group 2 Queen’s Vase yesterday. He’s clearly a 105+ horse and the fact that Post Impressionist is able to run off just 89 here seems pretty lenient. The return to turf and longer trip will both suit. While writing this column he has been smashed up in the market from 10 to just 4.2, which is on the skinny side, but he is the most likely winner of the race.

Selection: Post Impressionist @ 4.2

5.00 Royal Ascot, 1m Britannia Stakes

Handicaps don’t get much tougher than the Britannia, a 30-runner three-year-old cavalry charge over the straight mile, especially when this year’s edition seems to be bursting with Group talent in the form of Atrium, Wanees, Tranquil Night, Whoputfiftyinyou and Amortentia.

You can make a strong-enough case for all five of those runners, as well as a couple more at bigger prices, but if there’s one superstar in this field it is undoubtedly the Charlie Appleby-trained King Of Time.

A 475,000gns purchase who is unbeaten in three starts, this son of Kingman is a close relation to Royal Ascot winner Agrotera and has been brought along gently with this race in mind. He began his racing career just three months ago with an impressive and facile victory over the 77-rated Borgi at Lingfield.

He returned to that track just two weeks later and recorded another bloodless success, this time beating subsequent winners Aldhaja and Royal Aviation. On both occasions he finished his race with two sub-11-second sectionals despite being barely asked for effort, so there was no surprise to see him rack up the hat-trick on his turf debut at Newmarket 47 days ago.

King Of Time didn’t get the best luck-in-running that day - he was checked as he made his move into the dip - but he quickly refound his stride and zipped clear with the minimum of fuss. The time of that race wasn’t too bad when you compare it to the 2,000 Guineas on the same card, and Appleby let slip that he had been working with his Classic winner Coroebus in the build-up. 

Group races beckon further down the line for this colt and I’m convinced that a mark of 93 severely underestimates his talent. He’ll need the breaks in this huge field, but all of the major players seem to be drawn high so stall 29 might not be an issue despite preference for low gates over the first two days.

Selection: King Of Time @ 6.2

Recommended bets

Walbank (2.30 Royal Ascot) @ 3.2
Post Impressionist (3.05 Royal Ascot) @ 4.2
King Of Time (5.00 Royal Ascot) @ 6.2