Royal Ascot Tips: Tom Collins' NAP of the week headlines four Friday selections

3.40 Royal Ascot, 1m4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

The general rule of thumb is that you need to side with a four-year-old in this race. Runners from that age group have plundered 17 of the last 24 editions, including eight of the last 11, and unsurprisingly dominate the market this time around. 

High draws are no bad thing over this distance, either, given the relatively long run before the first bend. The last ten editions of the race have been won by horses drawn between gates ten and 21, which proves that sitting one or two off the rail can prove an advantage when room is at a premium in the straight.

The Hughie Morrison-trained Stay Well, who ironically isn’t the strongest of finishers, appears well handicapped and should run a big race under James Doyle. But my preference is for the North Yorkshire-based David and Nicola Barron trainee, Contact.

Time has been the making of this grey colt, who is a half-brother to talented but quirky stayer Just Hubert, and he is now rewarding the patience of his connections. Contact began his season with a good second at Thirsk, a race that has produced numerous subsequent winners including Tuesday’s Copper Horse Stakes winner Get Shirty. 

He readily made amends in a similar race at Newmarket, before fairly hacking up off a career-high mark of 90 at Haydock last month. He was only handed a 6lb penalty for that victory, which seems lenient, and this strong traveller appears well placed to record a hat-trick. 

Selection: Contact @ 12

4.20 Royal Ascot, 1m Coronation Stakes

The decision to bypass this Group 1 event with Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Homeless Songs is a little disappointing but completely understandable given the unsuitable ground conditions. As a result, champion two-year-old filly Inspiral is set to go off favourite and, with that being the case, I have to find something to beat her.

Classic winner Cachet, who is trained by SBK ambassador George Boughey, warrants a lot of respect, but she might have reached her level now (around a 110 horse) and any improvement from a lightly raced rival would see her fall short.

I’m going to have a small play on US challenger Pizza Bianca. Christophe Clement, for those of you who may not be familiar, is an extremely shrewd French-born trainer who began his career shadowing some of the best in the business, including the likes of Luca Cumani and Alec Head. 

He campaigns his turf horses in the style of a European trainer and, as a result, the majority tend to be hold-up performers rather than blazing speed merchants that we regularly see from the Wesley Ward barn. 

Pizza Bianca’s form is strong and comparable to some of our best fillies. She wasn’t beaten far by Fred Darling winner Wild Beauty at Woodbine last year, before scooting home to deny the likes of Malavath, Hello You and the aforementioned Cachet at the Breeders’ Cup. She’s built on those efforts this season and has been underestimated in the market.

Selection: Pizza Bianca @ 19.5

5.00 Royal Ascot, 1m Sandringham Stakes

The Sandringham is one of the trickiest races during an extremely difficult week due to the fact that we are dealing with relatively lowly-rated three-year-old fillies who have not yet shown their best. However, one horse stands out like a sore thumb in this year’s renewal.

Fresh Hope possesses all the characteristics that you need to win a big-field handicap at Royal Ascot. She has stamina threaded through her pedigree, which will help her get home over this stiff mile, a rapidly improving profile and an attractive handicap mark of just 82, to name just three.

She began her season with a short-priced defeat at Wetherby, but she travelled all over her rivals that day and blew up with a furlong to go. That form was boosted when winner Rogue Millennium took the SBK Oaks Trial at Lingfield on her next start. Fresh Hope was dropped back to a mile at Doncaster last month and readily made amends with a strong, late effort.

There is a distinct possibility that this daughter of New Approach will find notable improvement now that she is guaranteed to get cover in behind runners throughout the early portion of the race. Trainer Charlie Fellowes and jockey Hayley Turner have won this twice in the last three years and I’m not concerned by the draw in stall five.

Selection: Fresh Hope @ 8.8

5.35 Royal Ascot, 1m4f King Edward VII Stakes

I always want to take on Aidan O’Brien-trained runners in the King Edward VII Stakes. The master of Ballydoyle won a weak renewal in 2019 with Japan, but is otherwise 0-14 in this race in the last decade. That poor recent record includes defeats for 8/11 shot Astrology (2012), 10/11 favourite Battle Of Marengo (2013), 6/5 jolly Adelaide (2014), 5/2 chance Delano Roosevelt (2018) and 10/11 poke Mogul (2020).

He is represented this time around by Derby fifth Changingoftheguard, a forward-going type who handled Chester well on his penultimate outing before being swallowed up in the Epsom Classic. He’s a classy individual (rated 110), but he’s going to need further in time and tends to get warm in the preliminaries.

I much prefer Ottoman Fleet, who is my best bet of the week. This son of Sea The Stars showed signs of inexperience on his debut at Newbury and was given far too much to do, but rallied powerfully under pressure and took second in a race that is working out nicely (third-placed Lionel has subsequently won at Listed level).

Ottoman Fleet made amends when last seen, a performance that deserves real credit as he stumbled badly at the start. The probability of any horse winning after knuckling in the first stride is drastically reduced, yet Ottoman Fleet still managed to deny a smart sort in Zain Sarinda, albeit the pair raced against the favoured rail. 

I think he’s a 115 horse and therefore he has to be play under William Buick.

Selection: Ottoman Fleet @ 3.05

Recommended bets

Contact (3.40 Royal Ascot) @ 12
Pizza Bianca (4.20 Royal Ascot) @ 19.5
Fresh Hope (5.00 Royal Ascot) @ 8.8
Ottoman Fleet (5.35 Royal Ascot) @ 3.05