Punchestown Festival Tips: Tom Collins selects two horses worth following on Tuesday

If you’ve got it, flaunt it - that is the motto of legendary trainer Willie Mullins. And he is set to unleash some of his leading lights, many of whom lit up the 2022 Cheltenham Festival in March, at Punchestown this week. 

The five-day meeting at the County Kildare track marks the end of the jumps season proper in Ireland, a week after Sandown closed out British jumps racing last Saturday, and Mullins is fancied to assert his dominance once again. 

Indeed, runners hailing from his Closutton base head the market in five of the eight races at Punchestown on Tuesday. They include Sir Gerhard, who will be an odds-on shot to beat stablemate Dysart Dynamo in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle (4.15), and Energumene, who should win the Grade 1 Champion Chase (5.25). Both races are poor punting heats, but Mullins won’t care about that!

The other Grade 1 on Tuesday is the 3m½f novice chase, which I’ll come to a bit further down in this article. But first, let’s start with an intriguing handicap hurdle, in which I’m hoping I’ve found a diamond in the rough.

4.50 Punchestown, 2m½f handicap hurdle

There hasn’t been a single winning favourite in this contest in the last ten years despite Mullins (three occasions), Gordon Elliott, Nicky Henderson, Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs all entering the winner’s enclosure after this race in that timeframe. Trends indicate that it pays to look away from the obvious.

Seven-year-olds Ardla and Glan, both of whom handle quick ground, head this year’s field. The case for the former is as clear as day given he was only beaten two-and-a-half lengths by subsequent Martin Pipe winner Banbridge in receipt of 3lb when last seen at Navan in January. That runner is now rated 143, while Ardla can run off just 125 here.  

However, he is yet to prove himself in a big-field handicap and, given his front-running style, there is a good chance that he will be pushed into the red zone earlier than ever before. The Gordon Elliott-trained Glan at least proved she had the mettle for this kind of heat when she won at Fairyhouse just ten days ago. You have to trust that she can reproduce the goods after a quick turnaround off a 7lb higher mark, which isn’t certain. 

Another JP McManus-owned runner from that same handicap hurdle caught my eye. Hearts Are Trumps was never given a crack at the leaders and eventually crossed the line seven lengths behind Glan, but that was his first appearance for 168 days and connections must have been pleased with his finishing effort.

Hearts Of Trumps proved victorious off a mark of 131 in a similar contest to this on his second run last spring following a winter break, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he achieved the feat once again. He needs quick ground to be seen at his best and he is back on the right side of the handicapper.

6.35 Punchestown, 3m½f Grade 1 novice chase

I’m sure that Bob Olinger will be the toast of punters if he records a seventh consecutive victory in this Grade 1 novice chase, but I don’t want to go anywhere near him at his current price (2.1). 

There is no arguing that he is the horse to beat - I absolutely loved him going into the Ballymore at Cheltenham last year and he fairly hacked up - but his 2022 exploits have left a little to be desired, especially his most recent start in the Turners. 

The formbook tells you that he won that four-runner race by 40 lengths, but he would have been a distance behind the highly talented Galopin Des Champs had Mullins’ beast not stumbled on landing after the last fence. Losing to such a generational talent would have been no bad thing, but anyone who kept their eye on Bob Olinger up the hill must have questions about his breathing and desire for three miles.

It looked like he really struggled in the final two furlongs of that contest and Henry De Bromhead now applies a tongue-tie. The aid may fix his breathing and, if it does, he has a favourite’s chance. But you can tell a lot about how a horse finishes their races and I vowed to steer away from Bob Olinger until he proves his wind wasn’t an issue. If a horse can’t breathe they rarely win.

This is no penalty kick, either, with Aintree winner Millers Bank, course winners Beacon Edge, Fury Road and Lifetime Ambition, and Capodanno in the field. The latter, who was beaten just over four lengths by Bob Olinger in January, is the selection.

A son of Manduro, Capodanno has always been earmarked as a staying chaser in the making and I thought he ran with great promise in the Brown Advisory last month. He didn’t handle the track overly well, which was why he lacked fluency over his fences, and the return to Punchestown (he won at this meeting last year) can only be seen as a positive. He needs to take a step forward, but that’s pretty feasible. 

Recommended bets

Hearts Are Trumps (4.50 Punchestown) @ 19
Capodanno (6.35 Punchestown) @ 4.3